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Comment by 827a

6 days ago

> Next 5 years or so (or even less) both the iPad and the Wearables, Home and Accessories category will overtake the sales of Macs.

Are we reading the same quarterly report?

Wearables/Home/Accessories is slightly higher than the Mac, yes, but its a category that has been trending poorly for Apple for ~18 months now IIRC, and that hasn't gotten better this quarter (9.04B->9.01B 3mo YoY). There's no foreseeable future where Vision starts driving Mac-like revenue (meaning, it'll be at least 2 years). Airpods are huge mainstays but have really hit market capacity and aren't growing. Apple Watch will see strong growth if they can successfully get glucose monitoring working, but that's an *if, and until then its slipping from an "upgrade every 3 years" to even longer lifecycle for most people.

Meanwhile: Mac is their fastest growing hardware segment by revenue (+12% 3mo YoY) (iPhone is +6%, iPad is flat, Services +15%).

iPhone aint going anywhere, Services are carrying their growth, but Mac is very solidly the #3 darling of this report. Their other product lines (Apple Watch, iPad, Airpods, etc) are interesting, successful businesses, but its unlikely we're going to see much growth out of them over the next 2 years. The story is iPhone, Services, and Mac, in that order, and there's no #4.

I wonder how much the Windows 11 debacle will increase Mac sales by.

  • It's hard to see someone living under a rock for this long suddenly deciding to switch the Mac.

    I suspect iPhone adoption has done a lot more toward Mac adoption.

    • I was under that rock. Bought a used M1 pro this year for $600 and tossed the wheezing XPS 15 aside.

    • We have a 2015 MPB that can no longer receive OS updates, because apple reasons. And because it can't get the latest OS, it can no longer run Signal, or the latest Adobe stuff that we need. So we ditched Apple and bought a Dell. So far it's working great.

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  • > the Windows 11 debacle

    Seems to imply that anyone cares beyond a niche. I use Windows 11 on my gaming PC and emulator PC, and I don't care at all. It works perfectly fine.

    OS X is much worse in my opinion, with awful window management and constant bugs breaking basic functionality.

    The only decent OS experience I've ever had is with KDE and Gnome. But Linux sucks at running games, and there is no good Linux/x86 hardware out there.

    Pick your poison.

    • > Linux sucks at running games, and there is no good Linux/x86 hardware out there.

      This isn't true in the slightest. You must be dealing with some seriously outdated information.

      I've been running games on Linux full time for 3 years. I made the switch the week Elden Ring launched when it immediately ran better on Linux than on Windows. That was the top selling game at the time. I've had extremely minimal performance issues since my switch. Other major games I've run include Baldur's Gate 3, multiple Resident Evil games, and the Oblivion remaster.

      I'm running a 7600X with a 9070XT as of last month and am finding my hardware is perfectly fine.

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    • Linux is fantastic at running games, and there is beginning to be good Linux/x86 hardware.

      Linux compatibility is very high, and Linux install base is becoming a considerable size of total PC gaming market.

  • Depends where on the world the people are located and their budget for laptops beyond 500 euros.

  • > Windows 11 debacle

    Do you really think that anything MSFT has done with MW11 --unfriendly to consumers or not-- will significantly impede the success of MW11?

    • Nope, because outside Ferrari priced laptops, there is no choice on regular consumer stores.

      The option is between Windows, ChromeOS and Android based laptops (aka tablets with keyboards).

      Thus most consumers without endless budgets end up getting a Windows laptop, regardless of its current state.

      We had the option with Linux, however first all netbooks already showed the trend with OEMs distros (gotta differentiate), Microsoft reacted, and tablets delivered the final blow.

      Ideally there would be nice laptops with other options at consumer shops that people during their Weekend window shopping tour would feel like buying on a whim.

Yeah, I agree. I have an Apple Watch 5 and I don’t really look at new models if they don’t have new sensors. Even then, I wait to see if they are useful. AirPods get replaced if they get broken maybe. I’m still rocking my 2018 iPad and I don’t feel like I need an updated one. iPhone gets replaced once they become unsupported. I’m still deciding if I want to commit to the ecosystem by getting a Mac or get a Framework.