Comment by lvl155
3 months ago
They probably know more than us. Such as alternative chips or that the Chinese will go in-house sooner than we think. Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as people think.
3 months ago
They probably know more than us. Such as alternative chips or that the Chinese will go in-house sooner than we think. Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as people think.
> They probably know more than us. Such as alternative chips or that the Chinese will go in-house sooner than we think. Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as people think.
This is Softbank though, they're not really noted for great investment decisions (apart from Alibaba really early on).
Like, my prior is that when Softbank invest in something, the growth is done (but then I am, very much, a cynic).
Softbank had 5% of Nvidia stock just before gen AI boom. Then they sold it when it was at its lowest. If they didn't it would have covered all their losses many times over with a profit of more than 200 billion dollars.
It's just baffling they are still getting billions to spend.
[1]: https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbank-sells-entire-nvidia-st...
I'm not sad for Softbank missing out on $200 billion; I'm sad for not getting to witness how much more investment degeneracy that could have funded.
> It's just baffling they are still getting billions to spend.
When you realize that most investors at that level are degenerate gamblers, and that they're even worse about thinking "the Generals were due!" than your buddy who can't look away from the DraftKings app for more than five minutes, it's not so baffling anymore. The only difference is that when you have that much money, you own the casino.
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I had 250 shares I bought on a tip and sold for a decent profit then NVDA moon-shotted later that year. That's the story of my stock buying life right there.
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Thank you - this is an insighful comment, in contrast to many knee-jerk reactions in this thread.
Broken clock is right twice a day.
Softbank has literally done this before. Several years ago, Softbank sold it's Nvidia stake and later regretted it to such an extent that Masayoshi Son expressed his feelings by crying. They're only selling Nvidia stock now to fulfill a prior giant cash commitment to OpenAI. Also, Nvidia is positioned to own a sizeable chunk of OpenAI.
I was just thinking that they must be selling because they need the cash...
Not to mention the US companies probably want to develop their own chips to get away from Nvidia too. I don’t really see why any company would want to base their entire business on the whims of nvidia.
Given how poorly Intel and AMD have fared, it suggests the hardware moat is much deeper than the software one.
Nvidia's moat is their pace of performance growth, which is hardware + software + cultural.
If they skip a beat, or it becomes impossible to increase performance (TSMC node stumble or P4-style dead-end), then it won't take long for someone to catch up.
If they keep executing on better hardware performance + software to support it? They keep the money spigot on.
People are saying that nvidia doesn't have any moat for 20 years. And nvidia hasn't been dethroned, but grown into the largest company in the world in the meantime.
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Nvidia doesn’t make hardware. It designs hardware. TSMC makes hardware.
You can make the same comment for pretty much any company that outsources (some of) its production, and it’d be irrelevant, pedantic and off-topic every time.
You’re also wrong. TSMC produces but a small part of the products that Nvidia sells: the silicon. They don’t produce any of the tens of thousands other components that go in a server.
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> Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as people think.
Neither is OpenAI's.
nvidia's moat is still pretty strong and deep, while there have been many other models in competition with openAI's.
> Such as alternative chips or that the Chinese will go in-house sooner than we think. Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as people think.
SoftBank have holdings in Arm and likely to know what is coming down the pipeline.
Wouldn't that be insider trading?
No: SoftBank bought Arm in 2016, then refloated in 2023. They have good lawyers and a lot money.
They sold all their stake in 2019 too look it up. For sure they know more then .. just missed a 40x bagger
>They probably know more than us.
If they are privy to information that we don't know that led to this discussion, isn't that insider trading?
The entire AI bubble think they know better than us. Thar doesn't means they're right.
Does OpenAI even have a moat?
Softbank is the example that you could use against the conspiracy theorists.
They may know more, but not that much more.
> SoftBank has been a repeat investor in Nvidia. It sold off its investment before the AI boom took off and then bought the chipmaker's shares again before divesting in October to double down on its biggest investment bet, OpenAI.