Comment by shalmanese
1 day ago
Why would you set the probability at 1/3rd? It feels closer to 1/100 at most.
They've admitted the documents, if they're anywhere, are buried in a file cabinet at Iron Mountain. You can set a lower limit on the amount of labor required to produce the document. Activision is not going to go on this quest if the labor required * chance of the document existing exceeds the amount they can win in a lawsuit.
What you’re describing is a risk/reward approach to decision making. But in practice many execs do not follow this calculus.