tptacek is right, this whole discussion is silly because it revolves around what exactly "bad" means which is subjective. But if you want to really do calculations about this, you'd need to price out total expected revenue over your time preference window for each scenario. It's not at all obvious which one would win because it depends on at least these variables and probably more:
1. Over what time period you care about. "You" here means a hypothetical pharma executive who cares about his/her incentives. If symptom management makes a billion dollars repeatedly but each billion takes 200 years, and a cure makes a billion dollars once but in five years, nobody rational will want to sell symptom management.
2. Related to (1) what expected market returns are in future.
3. What price premium you can charge for a cure vs symptom management. The former is more valuable to customers.
4. How fast competitors can catch up. Imagine you find both symptom management and a cure for disease X. You keep the cure a secret and bring the subscription to market (for a price much less than what a cure would command). Six months later a competitor releases a cure, simultaneously wiping out your market and capturing all the immediate revenue. That would have been a bad move.
I'm sorry, but if you _actually_ think about it, your whole premise is ridiculous.
We'll put aside the obvious fact that drug researchers are, you know, people who presumably got into the industry to help people, which includes themselves and their families.
We'll also put aside the fact that drugs go out of patent relatively quickly, and they'd just lose out to generics. Like they do now.
The simple truth is they don't need to manufacture more clients, because a stream already exists. There are always new people developing new diseases and new issues. There's an incentive to come up with new and better tools to pull money away from generics.
Don't fall prey to paranoid thinking, actually think about it.
> Do. the. math. and. think.
OK then, where's your math?
tptacek is right, this whole discussion is silly because it revolves around what exactly "bad" means which is subjective. But if you want to really do calculations about this, you'd need to price out total expected revenue over your time preference window for each scenario. It's not at all obvious which one would win because it depends on at least these variables and probably more:
1. Over what time period you care about. "You" here means a hypothetical pharma executive who cares about his/her incentives. If symptom management makes a billion dollars repeatedly but each billion takes 200 years, and a cure makes a billion dollars once but in five years, nobody rational will want to sell symptom management.
2. Related to (1) what expected market returns are in future.
3. What price premium you can charge for a cure vs symptom management. The former is more valuable to customers.
4. How fast competitors can catch up. Imagine you find both symptom management and a cure for disease X. You keep the cure a secret and bring the subscription to market (for a price much less than what a cure would command). Six months later a competitor releases a cure, simultaneously wiping out your market and capturing all the immediate revenue. That would have been a bad move.
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Can you not paste LLM output here? Thanks.
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I'm sorry, but if you _actually_ think about it, your whole premise is ridiculous.
We'll put aside the obvious fact that drug researchers are, you know, people who presumably got into the industry to help people, which includes themselves and their families.
We'll also put aside the fact that drugs go out of patent relatively quickly, and they'd just lose out to generics. Like they do now.
The simple truth is they don't need to manufacture more clients, because a stream already exists. There are always new people developing new diseases and new issues. There's an incentive to come up with new and better tools to pull money away from generics.
Don't fall prey to paranoid thinking, actually think about it.
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