Indeed. In the not-too-distant future where renewables are the vast majority of generation (sooner in China than in the U.S. at current rates of progress), the weather matters more and more.
Yeah exactly like hackitup7 says, it has a huge impact on both sides of the supply and demand equation. It both drives house heating and cooling, which has a massive consumption impact, and it drives solar and wind production.
But knowing "there will be a massive drop in temperature between 1pm->2pm" doesn't help much anymore, you need to know which 15-minute or 5-minute block all those heat pumps will kick on in, to align with markets moving to 15-min and 5-min contracts.
Major forecasts like ECMWF don't have anything like that resolution; they model the planet at 3 hour time scale, with a 1 hour "reanalysis" model called ERA5.. hoping to find good info on what's available at higher resolution.
Temperature and weather can have a huge impact on power prices. Small examples:
* 90 degree day => more air conditioning usage => power goes up
* 70 degree sunny day => that's also July 4th (holiday, not a work day when factories or heavy industry are running) => lots of people go outside + it's a holiday => power consumption goes DOWN
* 10 degree difference colder/hotter => impacts resistance of power lines => impacts transmission congestion credits => impacts power prices
It's a fascinating industry. One power trading company that I consulted for had a meteorologist who was also a trader. They literally hired the dude from a news channel if I remember it correctly.
Seems like it would be pretty useful to forecast the supply of renewables (wind, solar, maybe some hydro).
it is indeed https://www.emsys-renewables.com/products/power_forecasts/wi...
Indeed. In the not-too-distant future where renewables are the vast majority of generation (sooner in China than in the U.S. at current rates of progress), the weather matters more and more.
Yeah exactly like hackitup7 says, it has a huge impact on both sides of the supply and demand equation. It both drives house heating and cooling, which has a massive consumption impact, and it drives solar and wind production.
But knowing "there will be a massive drop in temperature between 1pm->2pm" doesn't help much anymore, you need to know which 15-minute or 5-minute block all those heat pumps will kick on in, to align with markets moving to 15-min and 5-min contracts.
Major forecasts like ECMWF don't have anything like that resolution; they model the planet at 3 hour time scale, with a 1 hour "reanalysis" model called ERA5.. hoping to find good info on what's available at higher resolution.
Temperature and weather can have a huge impact on power prices. Small examples:
* 90 degree day => more air conditioning usage => power goes up
* 70 degree sunny day => that's also July 4th (holiday, not a work day when factories or heavy industry are running) => lots of people go outside + it's a holiday => power consumption goes DOWN
* 10 degree difference colder/hotter => impacts resistance of power lines => impacts transmission congestion credits => impacts power prices
It's a fascinating industry. One power trading company that I consulted for had a meteorologist who was also a trader. They literally hired the dude from a news channel if I remember it correctly.