Comment by gusfoo

3 months ago

> And how far out is that?

These guys have a 100% market share https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-systems at the 'extreme' end and, obviously, everyone else is trying but haven't really shown much promise.

Here's a good background article on the topic: https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2025/03/12/...

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gusfoo

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Nextgrid  3 months ago

> everyone else is trying but haven't really shown much promise

What was the incentive/funding for their attempts? In a non-national-security scenario it makes sense not to try too hard because you can just buy ASML's solution.

With China it's a bit different, if they decide it's a matter of national security and pour Manhattan-project-levels of money/resources into it, they could make faster progress.

  • dragontamer  3 months ago

    Well yeah. No one is saying that China cannot do that. Just that the political calculus is that it's better for China to spend their resources on that, rather than building up troops and warships.

    Force Chinas growth to be more expensive. It has nothing to do with not believing China can do it, it's about slowing them down in a task we believe that they can do.

    • SiempreViernes  3 months ago

      > Just that the political calculus is that it's better for China to spend their resources on that, rather than building up troops and warships.

      Note that this calculus only makes sense if you invade China while they are busy with the EUV machines, otherwise they catch up technologically and then build all the scary military.

      Of course, the the calculus doesn't make sense at all, because the obvious order when you can't do both is you build enough military to feel safe first, then you try for the tech race.

      6 replies →

    • hearsathought  3 months ago

      > it's about slowing them down in a task we believe that they can do.

      But it's not slowing them down. It's forcing them to accelerate development ( aka investing more into the sector ). Has china invested more or less? It's amazing how blind people are to this counterintuitive fact.

      6 replies →

  • mtrovo  3 months ago

    Agree, especially given the track record of China outcompeting in other markets where they got blocked.