Comment by Invictus0
2 days ago
People crying about the revenue gap constantly forget that OpenAI still hasn't turned on the ads, porn, and gambling. Trust, they will turn it on eventually.
2 days ago
People crying about the revenue gap constantly forget that OpenAI still hasn't turned on the ads, porn, and gambling. Trust, they will turn it on eventually.
Try using the shopping feature they just launched. It's literally just jamming ads into your chat session.
https://openai.com/index/chatgpt-shopping-research/
This is what they hired Fidji for, and they are going down the same dark path she took Meta down.
Everything’s for sale, and they will amplify whatever == revenue.
> Alphabet annual revenue for 2024 was $350.018B, a 13.87% increase from 2023.
So, they need to "just" get 20% of the market from Google to break even...
Which is silly because the whole point of asking an AI what induction stovetop to buy is so I don't have to do "shopping research"
Why would OpenAI have any sort of advantage in these industries compared to the established players?
it's pretty sobering to think that the so-called harbingers of SkyNet AGI have to fall back to mafia-era revenue streams like vice to convince shareholders that their money wasn't wasted.
I think the ads will be turned on, inevitably.
I hope the porn and gambling aren't turned on, but they will be. Probably under spin off companies to shield the brand, but using the tech.
I am suspect that ads will be able to cover the cost of inference, much less model building, salaries, product development, etc. The ad industry is built upon _and priced for_ websites that return results for virtually zero cost. That isn't going to be true for rendering AI.
They're already turning on the porn: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpd2qv58yl5o
You are more attracted to ads than porn?!
Define "attracted". I believe porn and gambling both do incredible amounts of damage to society. Ads probably do some damage to society, though I can recognize some benefits in being able to advertise and market products and services. I don't believe there is any benefit to the other two.
if I had my druthers, we'd leave the ads but get the porn and gambling.
two out of three of those require me to want to do them for them to affect my life.
HSBC, the firm who did the analysis in the article, took into account projected revenues matching user numbers of 44% of the world's non-Chinese population.
With zero market share for Google.
Living in AImaginationland must be nice. C’mon kids, let’s all sing the AImagination song: AImagination, AImagination, AIiiimagination, …
44% for OpenAI wouldn't mean 0% for Google, but considering that even Apple only has about 30% of the global smartphone marketshare, OpenAI getting there seems unlikely.
i don't know if it's where you got it, but that made my head go straight to Ocean from Wonder Showzen.
Calling a 2% penetration 'taking into account' is pushing it. I don't think a serious push into advertising would be that low.
It would be plausible but very optimistic projection if there was no competition that is currently crushing OpenAI
Oh, I agree it's implausible. But GP said
> People crying about the revenue gap constantly forget that OpenAI still hasn't turned on the ads, porn, and gambling
But quite the opposite, HSBC assumed that they will have a virtual global monopoly on AI, and even under those projections they will still need to take on hundreds of billions of debt. I'm sure if they get there getting access to that debt will be easier than I'm assuming currently.
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They may not be shipping good enough products, but on the flip side it still feels like they have almost no competition outside of coding and image gen. The EOL termination of 4-o should be some evidence of this.
OTOH, why don't they ship good enough products? To me all of OpenAIs recent investments strongly suggest they hit a dead end with their current LLM approach. After all, if they knew the path ahead for GPT looks great, why don't they invest into training the next big thing instead of doing datacenters with the intention of renting them out?
> ads, porn, and gambling
We already have those at home without OpenAI.
Also, the competition would be ruthless.
Sure, because there's one single ad network, one single place where you can gamble and one single porn site in the entire planet ...
That is exactly the parent's point, that while those things could bring in revenue, the competition in those industries is already incredibly fierce. And that's before potential new entrants into the space on the AI front. Even in the best of cases I don't think anyone is gonna be able to pull anything other than middling margins.
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This is absolutely what techbro MBAs raised on case studies of Apple and Toyota are likely to think. Gamblers and porn users do not have any sort of brand loyalty and are likely to be hostile to the idea of "vertical integration" and "360 degree views of the customer".
I think you're right, however that only defeats themselves in the long run. AI is something that can be run locally, while search, shopping, movies, social, etc. cannot. And once the ads are baked into the product, you will need a force like the EU to remove them else shareholders will riot. Ads will be the perfect weapon to shoot themselves in the foot.
Ok, probably true, but it’s still a pretty far fall from “we’re just about to deliver AGI which will put us in the driver seat of the entire global economy.” Which was the core value prop of their $trillion investment pitch. Like, there are way cheaper ways to deliver ads, porn, and gambling than training and operating huge LLMs.
The cost per generation is still too expensive, they would not profit from ads and very few people pay for porn. I don't see how they'd profit from gambling either.
Ads/porn I get but how does genAI powered gambling work?
"ChatGPT, here's 5 dollars. Please roll a fair die. did i win?"
This is truly the most stupid timeline.
(Imo) They will turn to all of these(especially to porn and gambling) when the core model of "enhance your life" will slowly fade away. The "academia space", the teens/boomers demographics, all of those will stop using OpenAI at scale if they're bombarded with vices (porn, gambling, etc).
Ads & referrals are already in the works, and people are generally tolerant of those. But, as with any company, appearances matter. ChatGPT will definitely lose users at the slightest possibility of having non-sanitized content served to more morally sensible groups.
there will be differentiated cohorts
I fully expect all three to happen.
"Google is excluded entirely"
Wouldn't that entirely kill the AGI delulu narrative (for people who still believe in it)
Delusion isn't swayed by facts. There are more than enough examples of this in the world today.