Comment by gostsamo
1 day ago
First, the US has advanced fab capabilities and in case of a need can develop them further. On the other side, China will suffer a Russia style blockback while caught up in a nasty war with Taiwan.
Totally possible, but the second order effects are much more complex than "leader once for all". The path for victory for China is not war despite the west, but a war when the west would not care.
The best path for victory for China is probably no war at all. War is wasteful and risky.
In a world where those starting wars would suffer their consequences the most, wars would be a bad idea. This is not such a world.
I don't agree.
Even the US suffers (their veterans do, anyway) but that's the country that in general least suffers from their constant involvement in warfare. They have this industry down to a "T". However, you cannot generalize from a nation that can project military force almost anywhere in the globe, with little fear of repercussion back home; most countries cannot afford this. China certainly cannot.
So what about the rest? Internecine conflicts are outrageously wasteful, and sadly common in the modern age. Russia's war with Ukraine has turned incredibly wasteful and costly, and Russians are suffering (and dying) regardless of whatever Putin says.
I think China is not generally oriented towards waging war. They do have their military, military projects, and their nationalistic things (what I learn from Wikipedia is called "irredentism"), but generally they seem to be trying to become an economic world power. War would mess and interfere with that. War is too fucking risky.