Comment by 0xWTF
19 hours ago
Ok, this seems like a good post. At the end of the day, what do I, as a single investor, do? I'm 50 years old, 2 kids in college, I have a $300,000 mortgage on a house presently worth $1M. I have $300,000 cash and an open eTrade account.
What do I do with the cash?
A) keep it as cash
B) Pay off the mortgage
C) Buy some QQQ
D) Buy some T-notes
E) there is no E. I am a simple man. Let's start with a simple solution.
Whatever you decide, be aware of the following:
- You will sleep 5% better every night from here on out if your mortgage is paid off
- You'll sleep 5% worse every night from here on out if you have 300k riding in the markets
A couple of these are easy to answer.
A - Never. Cash with no return is just decaying with inflation.
B - Depends on interest. If your mortgage interest is lower than no-risk interest (e.g. SGOV) then no, you'd be throwing money away by paying off the mortgage. If OTOH your mortgage interest is substantially higher than no-risk interest, then yes, paying it off (or at least overpaying monthly) is a good idea. There is a gray area if your mortgage interest is slightly higher than no-risk return right now. Numerically it makes sense to pay the mortgage, but there is also a safety aspect in keeping the liquid cash on hand.
So that leaves some combination of C & D. The best ratio there is a harder question to answer.
C. it's the only one that has you in the arena. There's no guaranteed outcome, but money itself is a team-sport.
I'm a simple man myself, so I'm answering in order to verify my own reasoning.
A. will have negative returns from inflation. D. defends against inflation but is too conservative. B. There's arguably negative value in holding more equity in terms of opportunity cost since you already have > 200% position in equity. source: I believe this guy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4H9LL7A-nQ
Keep 12 months living expenses in cash/t-bills. Depending on your age, increase to 24 mos if kids etc
If cash remaining -> if mortgage rate >4% pay down mortgage (locking in 4%+ yield). If you want to average 50% towards mortgage 50% VOO (S&P Index fund)
Deeper post ->https://monetarymusings.substack.com/p/how-to-not-blow-up-wh...
I enjoyed the linked post overall, but want to highlight one thing:
>The real insight: paying down your mortgage reduces your monthly burn, which reduces the chance you’ll need to sell stocks in a downturn. It’s not about math, it’s about resilience.
This seems more emotional than anything. The feeling of paying off a mortgage and being relieved of some monthly burden. But there will always be monthly burdens, that's life. Everyone needs monthly cashflow. So the insight of putting extra cashflow into a mortgage to offset the burden is just reversing the purpose of why you got the mortgage in the first place? What I mean is money has time value, a mortgage is paying for the time. So being in a hurry doesn't automatically insightfully make sense.
The post is all about resilience, I suppose my point is that there will always be a need for monthly costs, so trying to be free of the stress of a monthly cost -a time cost- is overly emotional in my view.
But it doesn't, does it?
If I have $300K on my mortgage and a monthly payment of $2000, and I pay an extra $100K, that 100K reduces the principal of the mortgage by $100K, and so the mortgage will run for several years less than it would have. But my monthly payment is still $2000 for the years I have left on it.
There are other ways to structure it - you can pay ahead, paying next month's payment this month so that you don't have to pay anything next month if you don't want to. Can you pay $100K so that you don't have to pay the next 50 months' payments? I don't know, but probably. You have to be clear with them what you are trying to do, though.
> locking in 4%+ yield
Locking in 4% AFTER TAX yield ... if you invest the $300K and it earns 4% you still can't pay the mortgage interest with those funds
No one can give you an answer to this but you because it depends on what you value.
I don't have any answers but you definitely need some cash. How much? I have no idea.
With the rest, I would put some in a vanguard account. And then invest where? I want to say index funds but the market is very strange. The biggest companies have too much wealth soaked up. Is this sustainable? Is this a bubble? Who knows...
You'll always have property taxes, maintenance, insurance etc even after your house is paid off.
So that 300,000 is the money you need to passively support your house after you've paid it off.
In your spreadsheet , you have to include what is expected appreciation on the house, what is the mortgage interest rate, how much longer you have on that mortgage, your personal opinion on how well QQQ is going to do, how much you’re gonna want cash - your emergency fund for a rainy day, should be some N months of living expenses. Mix that all up in the spreadsheet, and come up with whatever feels good to you. There is no right answer, and my time machine isn't any better than yours, or anyone else's.
I would buy some physical gold as the ultimate hedge (don't invest ALL of you money!), and invest everything else in some highly rated fund. Vanguard, Fidelity, etc.
Trading yourself is just not worth it. You'll lose money long-term. An exception here is if you want to hold shares of a company long-term as a form of investment.
If your mortgage is a fixed rate at a reasonable interest, then keep it. If there's a high inflation episode, you'll be able to benefit from it.
maybe learn about options. do some practice trading. Theory is one thing, patience and common sense are other things. Above all be very, very careful, but have fun.
The practice part is important but when you are comfortable, nibble a little with small amounts.
Yeah, my rule when I got started was "If I ever lose a lifetime aggregated $3000 in the markets, then the markets are not for me". Then once you're ahead in the markets, it's fine to continue trading.
(Note: I ended up breaking my rule by continuing to trade after losing $5000, but then did great in the markets anyway in the long run LOL)
Most of us lose more than that to inflation
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I made the mistake of gambling on 3x gas and oil futures once. Problem was, I got lucky a couple of times. They got all my money back and then some eventually. Gains based on luck can be toxic! Unless it's a well thought out statistical approach, maybe- but that would be a full time job.
E) bitcoin
Why is this hard? Calculate the expected value of each option, do a risk analysis, apply risk factor (based on your own tolerance), biggest number wins.
This comment has strong draw the rest of the owl vibes. (and the risk analysis & factor can cover a multitude of sins).
Risk analysis depends highly on your views of the world? "Are we in/heading towards a recession?""will the stock market continue its explosive growth"? "Do I as a person favor stability or prefer to take a bit of risk?"
All these will influence your EV.
Well yes, precisely. Which is why nobody can give this guy an objective answer to his question -- it's entirely dependent on him and his views. That being said, there is absolutely an analytical way to approach the problem, which is what I outlined.
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