Comment by EagnaIonat
4 months ago
I read the actual article.
He is pointing out that the current costs to create the data centres means you will never be able to make a profit to cover those costs. $800 Billion just to cover the interest.
OpenAI is already haemorrhaging money and the space data centres has already been debunked. There is even a recent paper that points out that LLMs will never become AGI.
The article also finishes out with some other experts giving the same results.
[edit] Fixed $80 to $800
$800B, to be clear is the claim, not $80B.
Clearly I need to read slower. Thanks. :)
While AGI might be the Holy Grail, AI doesn’t need to be general human-level to be useful and profitable.
it just needs us to wait one more year right?
It's already quite useful. While not all AI service providers are profitable, I've worked on projects that saved a lot of money for the company - a lot more than it cost us running the servers.
>> There is even a recent paper that points out that LLMs will never become AGI.
can you share a link?
Took me a while to find again, as there are a lot of such papers in this area.
https://www.arxiv.org/pdf/2511.18517
A single author, in a physics department. Seems unlikely to be groundbreaking or authoritative.
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Is this AI paper written by a reputable subject matter expert? It seems to be written by a physicist and also be the only academic work by this author in English
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Sry to say but the fact that you argue with LLMs never become AGI, you are not up-to-date.
People don't assume LLM will be AGI, people assume that World Models will lead us to AGI.
I personally never asumed LLM will become AGI, i always assumed that LLM broke the dam for investment and research into massivce scale compute ML learning and LLMs are very very good in showing were the future goes because they are already so crazy good that people can now imagine a future were AGI exists.
And that was very clear already when / as soon as GPT-3 came out.
The next big thing will probably be either a LOT more RL or self propelling ai architecture discovery. Both need massive compute to work well but then will potentially provide even faster progress as soon as humans are out of the loop.
> People don't assume LLM will be AGI,
I wish that was true.
> people assume that World Models will lead us to AGI.
Who are these people? There is no consensus around this that I have seen. You have anything to review regarding this?
> as soon as GPT-3 came out.
I don't think that was true at all. It was impressive when it came out, but people in the field clearly saw the limitations and what it is.
RL isn't magical either. Google AlphaGo as an example often required human intervention to get the RL to work correctly.
AlphaGo Zero doesn't need much human intervention at all.
Regarding world models: All the big ones. LeCun, Demis Hassabis, Fei-Fei Li too. And they are all working on it.
LLMs will definitly play some type of role in AGI. After all you can ask an LLM already a lot of basic things like 'what are common tasks to make a tea'. A type of guide, long term fact memory or whatever this can be called.
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Are OpenAI or Anthropic et al seriously building towards “world models”? I haven’t seen any real evidence of that. It seems more like they are all in on milking LLMs for all they are worth.
I mentioned it in my other comment but people like LeCun, Demis Hassabis, Fei-Fei Li do.
There are indications that Open AI is doing this but nothing official as far as i know and i have not heard anything from Anthropic.