Today's front page is not a clean 10 year extrapolation from this. That's where AI is wrong. The future is weird and zig zags, it's not so linear as the Gemini generated page.
Honest question - do you think that everyone else thinks this is even REMOTELY what the front page will look like in 10 years?
I comment because I really cannot figure out why you left your comment. Do you think the rest of the commenters think this has predicted the future? It might be one thing to point out specific trends you think will not play out, or unexpected trends you think may show up that are currently left out. But to just remark that the future will contain things we cannot currently predict seems so inherently, unspokenly obvious that I just have to assume that wasn't the point of your post, and I've missed it entirely.
Sorry, I'm really not trying to be mean or anything - i'm just really confused.
Your confusion seems to stem from the assumption that, making a statement is an implicit assertion that most people believe the opposite of that statement.
In reality, statements are often made rather for the purpose of emphasis or rhetoric.
To answer your question: I think that GP mostly wanted to share the insight that the future zig-zags, which is kind of non obvious and a fun thing to think about. People often like leaving comments about interesting thoughts or ideas, even if they are only tangentially related.
This is a problem with nearly all predictions about the future. Everything is just a linear extrapolation of the status quo. How could a system have predicted the invention of the transformer model in 2010? At best some wild guess about deep learning possibilities.
Or the impact of smartphones in 2003? Sure smart phones were considered but not the entire app ecosystem and planetary behavioral adaptation.
Nice. That was a fun rabbit-hole. This is the earlier I could find. Interestingly it contains a link to HN itself. I assume this migrated from a different version of a message board?
> YouTube: identifying copyrighted material can't be an automated process. Startup disagrees.
Also kind of interesting how little HN commenting styles have changed. Aside from the subject matter, it's barely noticeable that the comments are from 2007. I don't think the same would be true of many other places round the web.
Goddamnit I cry everytime. RethinkDB was a great document store that didn't eat your data. It got eclipsed by an outfunded (and still dangerous at the time) MongoDB.
Pretty funny that the top story there references A.I.!
Since /front is a ranked union of all the stories that were on the frontpage over 24 hours, here's an actual snapshot too:
https://web.archive.org/web/20151209195229/https://news.ycom...
Cortana! I had forgotten that name...
> Jukedeck – create unique, royalty-free music for your videos using A.I.
Aquired by TikTok in 2019 for an undisclosed sum.
Today's front page is not a clean 10 year extrapolation from this. That's where AI is wrong. The future is weird and zig zags, it's not so linear as the Gemini generated page.
Honest question - do you think that everyone else thinks this is even REMOTELY what the front page will look like in 10 years?
I comment because I really cannot figure out why you left your comment. Do you think the rest of the commenters think this has predicted the future? It might be one thing to point out specific trends you think will not play out, or unexpected trends you think may show up that are currently left out. But to just remark that the future will contain things we cannot currently predict seems so inherently, unspokenly obvious that I just have to assume that wasn't the point of your post, and I've missed it entirely.
Sorry, I'm really not trying to be mean or anything - i'm just really confused.
Your confusion seems to stem from the assumption that, making a statement is an implicit assertion that most people believe the opposite of that statement.
In reality, statements are often made rather for the purpose of emphasis or rhetoric.
1 reply →
To answer your question: I think that GP mostly wanted to share the insight that the future zig-zags, which is kind of non obvious and a fun thing to think about. People often like leaving comments about interesting thoughts or ideas, even if they are only tangentially related.
This is a problem with nearly all predictions about the future. Everything is just a linear extrapolation of the status quo. How could a system have predicted the invention of the transformer model in 2010? At best some wild guess about deep learning possibilities.
Or the impact of smartphones in 2003? Sure smart phones were considered but not the entire app ecosystem and planetary behavioral adaptation.
Yes, of course this is right. However, I do think LLMs suffer even more than people from linear extrapolation.
[dead]
Nice. That was a fun rabbit-hole. This is the earlier I could find. Interestingly it contains a link to HN itself. I assume this migrated from a different version of a message board?
https://news.ycombinator.com/front?day=2007-02-19
15 years ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/front?day=2010-12-09
> Evernote makes $800,000 per Month > Dropbox for Teams > Mark Zuckerberg Agrees to Give Away Fortune
There are some funny ones in there:
> Finally mobile Flash video
> Google acquires advertising startup
> Track users' mouse movements on your webpages
> YouTube: identifying copyrighted material can't be an automated process. Startup disagrees.
Also kind of interesting how little HN commenting styles have changed. Aside from the subject matter, it's barely noticeable that the comments are from 2007. I don't think the same would be true of many other places round the web.
Swift has been OSS for 10y now, and still only runs usably on Mac and Linux (the only platforms Apple cares about - coincidence?).
The Arc Browser on windows is Swift with a real windows api layer for SwiftUI.
it'd be interesting to feed this into the same AI, and have it predict today's front page
extremely telling - lot's of tech mentioned there either never reached expected potential or completely obsolete...
Prompts to be much more cautious with the current tech, and invest more time in fundamental stuff (like closer to science).
Some high profile news; yahoo altaba spinoff, Magic Leap (what are they up to now?), ...
totally forgot about Magic Leap
"Magic Leap raises $827M in Series C". Aged like wine.
They're still doing well today, right? IIRC they provide the lenses for Metas in-development AR glasses
> RethinkDB Driver for Java now available
Goddamnit I cry everytime. RethinkDB was a great document store that didn't eat your data. It got eclipsed by an outfunded (and still dangerous at the time) MongoDB.