Comment by PessimalDecimal
3 days ago
> the PRC operates on long time horizons and will probably succeed long-term in raising birth rates.
That would make them the first country to do so, I think. Others have tried and nothing has worked. But China will likely become rich before it gets old, so it may not matter.
Did you mean to say "But China will likely become old before it gets rich"?
Their population is declining already and they have a very long way to go before being considered "rich", so I haven't seen many projections for what you said. If you meant it, I'd be curious to know why.
China's middle class is already larger than the entire US population, and growing fast. It won't be rich in the sense that say Switzerland or Norway are rich. But it seems safe to say they won't be barely scraping by.
IMO, India likely won't make this transition. It's population is still growing but it's birth rate is sinking fast (like most everywhere else).
And China's lower class is nearly double the size of the US population, making a median of $150 per month.
India's demographics don't look as bad as China's, so I'm not sure why you're less optimistic about them.