Comment by klodolph
2 days ago
I hope it’s like what happened to countries like England, France, and Spain. You see your empire collapse but the country itself remains intact.
England “gave up” scientific and technological leadership during the 20th century. (That’s a tongue-in-cheek take on it, don’t read too much into it.)
It worked out well for Europe because the country that took over its position of leadership position post-WW2 (USA) was aligned with it in all ways (politically, culturally, scientifically, economically), and so (western) European countries could still enjoy all the benefits. It will not be the case this time around, because the next generation of innovation and leadership is going to come from China.
I think that is the most likely outcome. However, if the decline starts occurring too rapidly, I do think violent far-right (and perhaps far-left) paramilitary action could become a major problem, like in 1920s/1930s Germany. Tons of time spent lurking in far-right extremist communities out of morbid curiosity, and the spread of far-right ethnosupremacist sentiment on basically every social media platform, has me concerned.
The good news is those people are fundamentally absolute losers.
Yes, nearly all of them absolutely are. (I have talked to many of them and they really truly are.) That fact does genuinely assuage my concerns. Still, I do wonder if a future charismatic far-right politician who does not come across as a loser could do far better than previous generations ever could have predicted. The worst possible person at the worst possible time.
Yes but Spain, England, and France all had decade long declines that reversed. Except you know, at the end. When it didn't reverse.
We are witnessing the end of... something. Is it the end of the Roman Republic or is this the end of the Roman Empire?
Two very different situations despite being so politically fraught and full of change.
> England “gave up” scientific and technological leadership during the 20th century. (That’s a tongue-in-cheek take on it, don’t read too much into it.)
Was forced to give up, due to the economic devastation of WWII, might be more accurate (though of course there were other factors too).