Comment by fwipsy
1 day ago
"Good enough" has to mean users won't be frequently frustrated if they transition to it from a frontier model.
> it is highly task dependent... much could be done without that level of intelligence
This is an enthusiast's glass-half-full perspective, but casual end users are gonna have a glass-half-empty perspective. Quen3-8B is impressive, but how many people use it as a daily driver? Most casual users will toss it as soon as it screws up once or twice.
The phrase you quoted in particular was imprecise (sorry) but my argument as a whole still stands. Replace "consumer hardware" with "typical PCs" - think $500 bestseller laptops from Walmart. AI PCs will remain niche luxury products, like gaming PCs. But gaming PCs benefit from being part of gaming culture and because cloud gaming adds input latency. Neither of these affects AI much.
How many consumers (not business) are genuinely using frontier models? You think OpenAI and Anthropic will forever serve the most intelligent models to free users? Heck they don’t already
Efficiency gains exist and likely will continue, as well as hardware generally accelerating, as software and hardware starts to become co-optimized. This will take time no doubt but 10-15 years is hilariously long in this world. The iPhone has barely been out that long
And to be clear I think the other arguments are valid I just think the timeline is out of whack