Comment by somenameforme
2 months ago
This is more of a go out with a whimper rather than a bang type thing. Being the world reserve currency (as well as the largest consumer market in the world) previously enabled the US to do things like relatively easily export inflation in spite of relatively reckless monetary policy. Now that inflation is sticking around far more persistently, even long term bonds have gone from 1-2% to 4%+, and so on. Stagflation is a conceivable longer term outcome.
The replacement will probably be a multinational currency with strictly controlled quantity tied to some sort of physical asset(s). Basically Bretton Woods 2.0, except with the learned experience of not just granting a single country immense power and having them pinky swear not to default on their obligations and then abuse that granted power. China's probably betting that that asset will be gold.
No, physically backed currencies will not return because physical goods do not correlate with the size of an economy, especially the amount of gold
Gold-backed currencies, and even Bitcoin, are really good if you want your economy to be only this big, and never grow bigger. Eventually, a crisis will happen, and you'll say "actually, its now 1.3 yuan to the gram, because we need to build tanks", or "actually, did we say we had 8,000 tons of gold in reserve? we meant 9,000. Yeah we just counted, no you can't look at it, we have 9,000, here take the yuan and go build vaccines", or "its now illegal for citizens to own gold, turn it in at your nearest party headquarters" (even the US participated in that one!)
If the government not sticking to a backed currency is one of the biggest concerns, then that's quite high praise of the concept in and of itself! In any case the amount of currency does not determine the size of an economy. Rather the size of the economy determines the value of the currency. As economies grow in a system with relatively finite amounts of currency, the currency simply becomes worth more - people become overall wealthier and things become overall cheaper.
This is how you get things like the elderly generation thinking people are just lazy - when they were young, you could fully fund university and have enough for a down-payment on your first home through a part time job. The dollar just went much further. They don't really understand that's not the way things are anymore, especially as most are largely detached from the broader economy.
Also the 'crisis point' you mention is similarly an issue with fiat currencies. Look we're going to print a billion dollars just this once... then 10 billion... then 100 billion.. then they're printing money by the trillions and insisting that the inflation will just be 'transitory', because it always has been, until the one time it isn't. It's akin to somebody arguing that you can always put a bit more air in the balloon - after all it hasn't popped before, so why would it now?
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"actually, did we say we had 8,000 tons of gold in reserve? we meant 9,000. Yeah we just counted, no you can't look at it, we have 9,000, here take the yuan and go build vaccines"
You cant do that with bitcoin
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They correlate with the size of production, which is a much better measurement than the amount of trading back-and-forth.
I know you mean it as in governments won't return to a system that doesn't let them inflate the money supply, but that doesn't mean it's a bad thing...
Being able to conduct monetary policy is valuable, even if it can be misused. Otherwise all other countries would just be using USD.
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The amount of currency does not have to correlate with the size of an economy. When the economy grows while the amount of currency stays the same then your money simply becomes worth more. For the overwhelming majority of history this was taken to be a good thing. The argument for inflation is that if money become worth more over time then it would discourage investment and encourage money hoarding.
That's probably not untrue, but that critique doesn't simply make the alternative better. Money becoming worth less, inflation, creates an arguably worse scenario where now wealthy individuals are motivated to hoard things instead of currency. For instance Bill Gates is currently the largest private landowner of farmland in the US. This issue is where you get the WEF also publishing their 'You will own nothing, and be happy.' goal. I find this more unpleasant, and even dystopic, than Scrooge nosediving into his stash of ever more valuable dollars.
Another major issue here is that lower classes are the most unable to deal with inflation. They can squirrel away some money, but in an inflationary system that's the last thing you want to do. For instance stuff like bank CDs are basically just exploiting economically illiterate individuals. Nobody wants money in an inflationary system, but lower classes need immediate access to their money for the next time e.g. their car breaks down, and they are extremely risk averse. The net result of this is a system that not only perpetuates but directly drives ever greater extremes of wealth inequality.
If you want to see how much a deflationary currency fails as a currency, just look at bitcoin. The wild value swings are caused by more people hoarding it than using it as a currency, which is caused by it being deflationary. Now look at monero, which is inflationary, is largely used for day to day purchases (of mostly illegal items) and has a much more stable value, which is one of the key attributes of a good currency.
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We almost got that with Bretton Woods 1.0:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor
> The replacement will probably be a multinational currency with strictly controlled quantity tied to [...] probably [...] gold.
This is econolibertarian fan fiction. Literally no one wants that except people already involved in speculating[1] on gold. Are there bad externalities to relying on a unlitaterally controlled reserve currency? Yes. Are they made better by handing financial control over to a bunch of fucking mine and vault operators? Let's be real, here.
Basically this idea appeals to people who've convinced themselves they can get rich betting on financial policy and stay rich by burying their loot in their metaphorical backyard.
[1] The very fact that such speculation even exists should be a triple exclamation point red flag on any argument about hard currency, but alas no.
Yes, thank you. My puny mind can't even understand how people come to be convinced that gold should be the end all be all of international trade.
> This is econolibertarian fan fiction.
I guess you never heard of the XDR? it was tied to gold
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_drawing_rights#Alterna...
... and could be again, if the US regime continues its incontinence
SDR valuations were tied to gold when the USD was still gold-based. Needless to say Bretton Woods didn't survive that transition at all. Again, it was a failed (!) experiment, not a recipe to try again. Believing otherwise is fan fiction.
With highly liquid capital markets, why wouldn't the dynamics be more like a bank run?
Because dumping all of your US treasuries is a political statement. You can only sell to a willing buyer and announcing that you’re going to do that is tantamount to lighting wealth on fire. Treasuries are assets so there’s no counterparty that will “run out”.
Imagine how red 100 years of economists faces will be when the world ends up back on a gold backed currency.
Probably only takes 2 years before they start inventing abstractions on top of it and this kicking off the eventually next economic disaster.
There were, of course, no economic disasters back when the world operated on gold-backed currencies.
The goldbugs won't be red in the face, though, because they are never wrong and are constitutionally incapable of feeling any shame.
I’m pretty sure no-one has argued that a gold standard would prevent economic disasters. That sounds like a straw man. My understanding is that there would be more of them but the individual and cumulative impact would be far less. You can still have fractional reserve banking with the gold standard so the gold standard alone is not sufficient to prevent that.
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Works until we have someone mining asteroids for gold. Then the gold backed currency collapses overnight.
No that's a good thing actually, because then we get asteroid mining spaceships
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I'd rather go back to crypto than be chained to a piece of stupid metal.
You take that back now. Gold is the best thing which has ever existed. Name one thing in the world which can even compete.
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