Comment by metalman
2 days ago
My thinking is that China does not want to cause a regional arms race and so will want a very short decisive action(hours), and then quickly dismantle the whole aparatus and then leave taiwan as a "semi indipendent" territory with integration of military, customs and courts to the mainland.
When mainland China resumes full control of taiwan it will be a , sudden, vast, utterly overwhelming , and almost bloodless take over. To put things in perspective, mainland China has an excess male population of military service age, larger than the total population of taiwan. So staffing is not a problem. China is working on building a fully modular shipping container based ultra high tech missle and surface warfare systems package, to instantly convert a container ship, into a full on bad ass navy ship, so will have full spectrum area dominance. China OWNS drone production, and will have military liasons embeded in the Russian forces fighting in the ukrain. It goes on and on, China is HUGE, and taiwan is smol, and taiwan made the mistake of claiming ALL of mainland china as there property,, and will soon have that claim, tested, all in acordance with international law, or whatever passes for that. And again, china's concern is to make this a blip in the media cycle that gets no real traction and is gone overnight. The current drills are a signal that if the US goes into Venezuela or other countrys, China may do it the messy(er), way, now, but would prefer another scenario.
What would the outcome be if China just decided that Taiwan was independent at this point and left her to govern herself?
(I'm looking for speculative answers, not so interested in "not going to happen").
just? decided! those two words realy dont go well together without citing precidents.
I was hoping for a real answer, since you obviously have quite a knowledge and an interest in posting about this topic.
Playing word games isn't really making decent discussion.