Comment by constantcrying

Totally delusional. The article does not even try to figure out why any of this happened.

In all of the cases the main prediction that was made came true. The cost, especially the human cost, of developing some piece of software dramatically decreased. The only reason why the amount of programmers needed still rose was because the amount of software needed rose faster.

Clearly that trend will not hold forever.

>The hard part of computer programming isn’t expressing what we want the machine to do in code. The hard part is turning human thinking – with all its wooliness and ambiguity and contradictions – into computational thinking that is logically precise and unambiguous, and that can then be expressed formally in the syntax of a programming language.

And there is exactly one single technology which has ever been able to do this task, which is LLMs. Not addressing the elephant in the room, which is that an LLM can actually take such instructions and produce something meaningful with it, just makes the whole article worthless.

Everything in this article is just inverse special pleading. Since the last N times, the most enthusiastic predictions did not come true, this time only minor changes can happen. If LLMs are only a revolution on the scale of fast interpreted languages (which have significantly impacted what a small team is capable of delivering in terms of complexity), then they will drastically impact most of the software industry.

If these changes happen, and simultaneously the rate at which software is demanded does not also increase (why would it?), then the implications will be extremely serious. Especially if you are not a developer in an established position.