Comment by johnnyanmac
11 hours ago
OpenAI collapses and MSFT tanks. Microsoft shareholders aren't quite that dumb.
And that's ignoring the dominoes of other AI firms being pulled out of because OpenAi falters.
11 hours ago
OpenAI collapses and MSFT tanks. Microsoft shareholders aren't quite that dumb.
And that's ignoring the dominoes of other AI firms being pulled out of because OpenAi falters.
> Microsoft shareholders aren't quite that dumb.
If they aren't dumb, why are they investing in MSFT now then if it's a bubble that's doomed to fail? And even in the worst case scenario, a 10-15% decline in the S&P 500 won't trigger the next Great Depression. (Keep in mind that we already had a ~20% drawdown in public equities during the interest rate hikes of 2022/2023 and the economy remained pretty robust throughout.)
Like I said, they aren't "that" dumb. They are playing a risky game, but when they see the number go down rapidly they will pull. Which will make the line go down even faster.
>And even in the worst case scenario, a 10-15% decline in the S&P 500 won't trigger the next Great Depression
Only if you believe the 10% decline won't domino and that the S&P500 is secluded from the rest of the global economy. I wish I shared your optimism.
> and the economy remained pretty robust throughout.
Yeah and we voted the person who orchestrated that out. We don't have the money to pump trillions back in a 2nd time in such a short time. Something's gonna give, and soon.
> Only if you believe the 10% decline won't domino and that the S&P500 is secluded from the rest of the global economy. I wish I shared your optimism.
So your hypothesis is that a 10% decline in the S&P 500 will trigger the next Great Depression, i.e. years of negative GDP growth and unemployment? I agree that it could cause a slight economic slowdown, but I don't think AI and tech stocks are a large enough part of the economy to cause a Great Depression-style catastrophe.
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