Comment by nradov
8 hours ago
China doesn't particularly need US soybeans but they're going to have to continue importing soybeans from somewhere (like Brazil or Canada) indefinitely. Like any commodity, soybeans are (somewhat) fungible. China doesn't have the right combination of arable land and cheap fertilizer necessary to be self-sufficient in soy at an economically viable cost. Of course, China's population is now declining so ironically that could increase their food security in a few decades.
Along ops reasoning, PRC will find domestic slop to feed pigs. There's already soybean replacement program in the pipelines, i.e. synthetic science + cheap power = future industrial substitutes. Because soybean conundrum is arable land (all sorts of soybean yield, lack of GMO, small plot farmer complexity mixed in), but pork prices fall under broad food (national) security so expect autarky > comparative advantage / cost when domestic pipeline in place. Like there's no reason for PRC to pay US soybean premium over Brazil, but they would because economic viability not as important.
TBH Anything strategic, expect PRC to adopt energy-to-matter to substitutes when the teach stack is figured out. Or at least have as less economic backup, i.e. PRC has unlimited cheap fertilizer (was top fertilizer producer via coal gasification) just more emission heavy. They're on way to displace all oil imports with coal to olefin/liquidation and EV. HQ steel via simply hammering energy into mid ores. All signs point they're moving towards strategic domestic abundance / autarky where they can.