Comment by solidsnack9000
1 month ago
CIWS is big but this has nothing to do with it -- it's actually easier to make a small turret, and small arms precision has been well understood for a long time. Put a 6.5mm Creedmoor on a computer controlled turret -- 6.5mm Creedmoor is generally accepted to be usable to 1km or more.
Range is limited in urban environments because of obstructions -- even the range of CIWS is far too great to be useful.
There hasn't been a real possibility for a long time, I don't think -- it's just not an easy use case.
Are you a male older than 13? You are a combatant and will be killed once you are in sight.
This is exactly the kind of thing that is unworkable.
(A) You don't want to shoot all those people. It's rare if ever the case that even 10% of those males are actually combatants. Even in Germany at the end of the WW2, I doubt it was that high.
(B) What if your own people make a breakthrough and take control of an area, and have all these machines with wildly nonspecific rules shooting at them?
Range due to obstacles is greatly overcome with altitude. My point about the 13yo is that -you- think it is unworkable, but a country that doesn't mind the word 'genocide' thinks it is a fine definition. Camera tech quickly went this route right? 'you could mount that camera but we haven't done it and therefor won't' turned into multiple cameras covering every square inch of a city from multiple angles once the tech was easy enough. The 'easy enough' trend is clear here. Miniaturization, precision, ease of maintenance, etc make the reasons this hasn't been done rapidly fall away and make it clear that it will be done. There is a clear argument that is isn't, yet, realistic to be done but this is a clear step in that direction.
I don't think there is a clear argument that it isn't realistic to be done from a technology standpoint -- in other words, I don't think this laser meaningfully changes things from a capabilities standpoint. The necessary miniaturization and precision are available.
Now, you may think I have the facts wrong, here -- that we haven't had the kind of precise turret before, or that we can't deliver small arms ammunition with great precision -- but you don't come out and say that: you haven't said I have bad facts.
If we accept that the technical capabilities have been there for a while, then we need another explanation for what the hold up is. I have offered an alternative, which is that it comes down to doctrine or operational issues -- it's not easy to see how to deploy a weapon system that automatically targets people without creating huge practical problems. I offered two concrete cases in my earlier comment. Here again, you haven't really spoken to them: you haven't said, for example, A is not a problem and here's why not. You have just ignored them.
It is really starting to look like you have a story and you are sticking to it.
My argument is that bullets move slow, can miss causing obvious damage to surrounding infra that shows up on cameras, that they are loud and that minaturization is important to making this a real trend. You started with CWIS which is massive and has a lot of maintenance. I don't have information on the small precise turrets you mentioned. Please provide it. Either way my arguments still stand. What may have not been done in the past because it was technically possible but not practical is now quickly becoming technically possible and practical and therefore will be built. We are seeing minaturization, simplification and movement towards a weapon system that minimizes camera unfriendly damage while also seeing a massive improvement in surveillance identification and tracking tech. The trend is there and it is pretty clear that it leads to a capability to track a city down to the individual and to be able, at any time, to hit a button to kill a bunch of people. This is a capability that will be developed and what is morally right never stops weapons development, just what is practical. We need to have the discussion sooner rather than later about how to handle these weapons on the battlefield and just as importantly how to keep them away as 'peacekeeping' use in civilian populations.
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