Comment by omgwtfbyobbq
1 month ago
The performance of V3 and V4 have improved significantly. I use them daily, more V3 than V4.
It's partially about fully automated cars, but that's barely started. IMO, it's more about them as ADAS now.
And it's not just about whether anyone else will catch up in terms of automation/ADAS, it's about whether anyone else will catch up in terms of manufacturing+automation/ADAS.
Edit- And yes, Elon acting like that doesn't help, but Tesla isn't Elon.
Elon is Tesla. He owns 10-15% of it and the last vote for his trillion payout thing shows what this means.
And there has never been a person like Elon, interfering in german election, USA election etc. and being the posterchild for companies.
In what timeframe did V3 and V4 improved for you? At least for me, even FSD 2023 videos were quite impressive.
Nvidia has its own platform with ML based training. Im pretty sure car companies can and will just use them if necessary. Besides that, left and right other companies are working on it, i saw an xpeng driving autonoms through the city and it worked very well.
Teslas first mover advantage is gone
Elon is not Tesla.
I think his decisions have been helpful in the past, especially compared to half-hearted attempts at EVs by most of most other large manufacturers, but only time will tell if his current positions will pay off. At least the new compensation is performance based. If he can't deliver, he doesn't get paid.
V3/V4 have significantly improved in the past few months. I use one, the other, or both, daily, more V3 than V4. They are well ahead of where they were in 2023.
I'm sure Nvidia and others will eventually catch up, but they have to catch up in terms of auto manufacturing/use, inference/training/sensor hardware manufacturing/use, fleet training data, etc... simulataneously.
Xpeng driving autonomously is great, and shows they are catching up at least in a specific situation. They may be catching up in the aggregate, they may not be. I agree that a Chinese manufacturer has the best chance to catch up overall.
In general, I think it's about whether a distributed, lower-compute/sensor with higher-data/training approach like Tesla/etc have will beat a more singular, higher-compute/sensor with lower-data/training like Waymo/etc have.
Distributed has been able to offer better ADAS at a lower cost, but singular is winning at fully autonomous driving. If distributed can catch up in terms of autonomous diving while continuing to improve ADAS, distributed is done. I have a hunch that's a part of why there's so much demand for DRAM/etc...
> Elon is not Tesla
you take Elon out of Tesla and you will end up with Ford, $13-16/share
> At least the new compensation is performance based. If he can't deliver, he doesn't get paid.
Unfortunately, with Elon and TSLA, this is not the case. He just has to promise he will deliver in some imaginary future (as he’s been doing for more than a decade) and he’ll be handsomely rewarded
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