Comment by Earl_Arthur
6 days ago
Prediction: the regime will not fall. This will destabilize the country further, not so much the regime itself.
There will be a decrease in oil production, marginally boosting world prices. What's probably being taken out right now is the regime's ability to react in any meaningful way to the oil embargo.
It will also allow Maduro to throw his hands in the air and blame the US for all of VZLA's ills going forward. More poverty, more suffering, more migration.
Well they just captured Maduro and flew him out of the country, so yes the regime quite literally did just fall minutes after you created your throwaway account to post this.
The regime isn’t the President in this case. It’s the ruling party and its institutions.
The power stays in Maduros party and just goes To the VP. It’s anyone’s guess what happens next - but nothing changing is a relatively easy bet.
Pay attention to who is generating the wrong predictions, and what their other opinions are on tangential questions.
It's a game of probabilities. Even if it does turn out fine, similar things in recent history have turned out very poorly*. But to be honest, I hate Maduro anyway, so I'd be happy for this to turn out well.
* - Claims 2 years ago about the removal of Hamas; assassinations of militia leaders leading to peace
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Yes. And some russian sources seem very understanding of the situation. I strongly believe Trump made a Deal with Putin. South america belongs to him. Putin can have europe.
Otherwise there would have been american aircraft shot down with russian tech. Or really any kind of support except empty words.
> Otherwise there would have been american aircraft shot down with russian tech
Yes, because as we all know Russian military technology is completely on par with that of the United States.
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Same Russian tech that protected Iranian airspace? ;)
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Putin can have Europe? You mean that country 10x poorer compared with EU will somehow take Europe? Country that's stuck in a war with the poorest european country for years?
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there's footage of a half dozen US Chinooks over Caracas with no resistance being put up at all. Possbly a General has acquiesced to a US led coup. This isnt just lobbing missiles.
Argentine newspaper Clarín reports some resistance.
https://www.clarin.com/mundo/respuesta-nicolas-maduro-explos...
These are not mutually exclusive propositions.
Your source, in translation, describes no specific responses, but largely that "The regime ordered the deployment of military and police commands throughout the country".
This is not inconsistent with, say, the US making an offer that Venezuelan military command in charge of air defences couldn't refuse, say, to stand down and not challenge US air supremacy.
I'm not saying that this did happen, but it's one plausible scenario, particularly for a country whose core competency is literally manufacturing US dollars, the most-prized currency worldwide.
If it was strictly a decapitation attack there probably wouldn't be multiple sites involved. They're claiming four states were targeted.
you dont send the choppers in until the air defence is neutered. What do you think a few dozen specaial forces are doing in Caracas?
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It's a country not a ticker symbol. VE is proper but even VZ would be better.
VZLA is the abbreviation Venezuelans use
Prediction: nobody is going to lift a finger to defend Maduro. Unless he already has escaped, his cronies will sell him out.
But afterwards, there's going to be a free-for-all struggle between ACTUAL cartels. That will be indistinguishable ftom a civil war.
Already captured. Press conference in 5 hours.
None of this makes sense. Venezuela has faced crippling sanctions from the US since 2017 that have not allowed it to sell to any western nation. Only China, Russia, and Cuba are potential customers for it. I highly doubt this will have any immediate effect on oil prices. It is also crude oil which only a handful of countries are capable of processing (the US probably being the best equipped)
US corporations will be brought in to exploit oil the same way they did in Iraq where they actually had to amend the constitution to allow for foreign corporations in.
US is an expert in trying to artificially build democracies.
They're more expert at demolishing democracy right now, their very own.
A military coup seems like a decent possibility here IMO.
The Venezuelan opposition leader was extracted and moved to Europe and I assume the US wants to install her. Maybe that is more likely, but a military takeover before the US can install whatever puppet government they're hoping for.
Are you saying the US will decide not to take out the senior leadership of the regime? Or are you saying that the regime will survive even if they do that?
If they have any brains they’ll keep the functionaries and install their own puppet as the new head, likely Machado.
For some reason we wisely keep the machineries of government in place in Japan and Germany post-war and threw that lesson out the window in Iraq. Always boggles my mind, how the CPA ran things immediately into the ground.
Either, really. Just a prediction, not clairvoyance.
What factors are you considering when forming your prediction?
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Here's another prediction: the regime will fall, the invasion will prove breezy and popular among huge fraction of Venezuelans. Trump admin (which was hugely insecure about its actual strength) will be bolstered and do some really really stupid thing next.
When was the last time America successfully conducted a regime change via military force? One that didn't result in a bloody civil war and hundreds of thousands dead?
Panama and Grenada probably fit that bill.
The question is whether the Venezuelan situation is more like those two, or more like Vietnam / Iraq / Afghanistan.
> the regime will fall, the invasion will prove breezy and popular among huge fraction of $CountryInvaded
When have we not heard this line? When has it even been true?
We always hear it, it's never true.
You are free to bookmark this and rub it in my face later.
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It was actually true in Iraq. The US received no resistance and rapidly captured the entire country ("Mission Accomplished").
The problems started after...
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I tend to agree with you. Venezuela is no beacon of freedom or prosperity and I think Maduro might prove even less popular than thought.
Maduro is very unpopular but a US occupation would be even less popular.
There is always a "rally round the flag" effect, to support the country - the country, not the leader - in the face of a foreign attack. It's not "Support Maduro or support USA". Those are not the options.
I wonder who is financing your efforts with throwaway accounts? Iran? Russia? China? or is it from drug cartels?
when you predict something you state a time line.
show positions or go away; skin in the game
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Maduro is a coward and has no military power
People here saying it's "unjustified" should go and talk to a displaced Venezuelan.
It might be welcome by the majority of Venezuelans (nor not, depending what’s next) but it is not justified in a US domestic sense or indeed by international law
Why talk only to displaced Venezuelans though? If you want meaningful data, your sample shouldn't be biased. What is the overall proportion of Venezuelans supporting this action?
The vast majority of Venezuelans voted for his opponent in the last election, which is widely considered to have been stolen by Venezuelans and the international community: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_e...
There have been widespread protests in Venezuela throughout Maduro’s regime, but especially after the election.
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Your attempts to sounding smart only betray a profound ignorance of the current state of things in Venezuela
I keep seeing this argument in here, but no one seems to point at any actual Venezuelans or message boards or whatever to support the point. Personally I only know a couple, classmates from decades ago who are FB friends and while they don’t support Maduro IIRC, I also don’t see any posts celebrating this great victory for the people. Who knows, maybe they’re partied out.
Maduro is a piece of shit.
But a military invasion of another country to commit regime change is literally what Russia tried to do to Ukraine.
America has blood on it's hands yet again.
EDIT: If the reports are true that Maduro has been captured and the fighting stops, then that's the best resolution one could hope out of this horrible situation. I pray for the Venezuelan people.
Right, and that's what the Allies did in Germany in 1945. I don't think it's helpful to paint everything with such a broad brush.
Russia is trying to annex Ukraine. They took part of it in 2014, then came back for more, and then organized sham annexation referendums in the regions they did control. Whatever the US is trying to achieve in Venezuela, it's probably not that. All war is deplorable, but some lead to good outcomes and some to bad ones.
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No, what Russia has tried to do to Ukraine is annex it as part of Russia. Not nearly the same, even if both are reprehensible.
The critical reaction is from the people on the Venezuelan street tomorrow.
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Some regimes deserved to be changed (and of course there are second order consequences)
I know some sheltered academics on Epstein's list disagree with that but that's a hill I will die on
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