Comment by varjag
1 month ago
Here's another prediction: the regime will fall, the invasion will prove breezy and popular among huge fraction of Venezuelans. Trump admin (which was hugely insecure about its actual strength) will be bolstered and do some really really stupid thing next.
When was the last time America successfully conducted a regime change via military force? One that didn't result in a bloody civil war and hundreds of thousands dead?
Panama and Grenada probably fit that bill.
The question is whether the Venezuelan situation is more like those two, or more like Vietnam / Iraq / Afghanistan.
> the regime will fall, the invasion will prove breezy and popular among huge fraction of $CountryInvaded
When have we not heard this line? When has it even been true?
We always hear it, it's never true.
You are free to bookmark this and rub it in my face later.
Sure, though your prediction of "will prove breezy and popular" is something that takes years, or even a couple of decades to play out. e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq.
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It was actually true in Iraq. The US received no resistance and rapidly captured the entire country ("Mission Accomplished").
The problems started after...
> The problems started after...
So it did not eventually "prove breezy".
I tend to agree with you. Venezuela is no beacon of freedom or prosperity and I think Maduro might prove even less popular than thought.
Maduro is very unpopular but a US occupation would be even less popular.
There is always a "rally round the flag" effect, to support the country - the country, not the leader - in the face of a foreign attack. It's not "Support Maduro or support USA". Those are not the options.