Comment by unionjack22
3 days ago
Here's a trick I've learnt to get an authentic view of events like these, a nice way to parse through the keyboard warrior and ivory tower voices and noise is to hear what Venezuelans, the millions of Venezuelan migrants, and the citizens of neighboring countries who've had to reckon with the legacy of Chavez think about this. You can extend this to anything really with good results.
No valuable insight will be gleaned from chat boards and reddit in the immediate aftermath of these sorts of events.
I've been traveling South America including Colombia, Peru, Chile, and Brazil. There are no good guys anywhere. A lot of the low wage labor come from Venezuela, and in the case of southern Brazil, Cuba. In Lima, Peru it is impossible to take an Uber without having to hear about how much a shit Maduro is. The crisis has strongly affected all countries in South America and if the Venezuelans are able return home and democratically elect a new regime it will be better for everybody.
If Venezuelans will end up with fair elections, it will be a good result from a bad action.
But knowing the usual modus operandi in SA, a dictator is more likely to be installed than not.
Because the oil seems to be the main discussion topic, it is fair to assume that there are no fair elections or own decision power anytime soon.
Just like how the US installed a dictator in Iraq?
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Laughs in Pinochet
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Lots and lots of locals were equally excited, if not more, at the beginning of Arab Spring…
Yeah. Exactly. There have been many regime changes in the last few centuries. It’s hard to think of more than a handful that were actually objectively better. It’s even harder to think of any where the US was involved in the overthrow and installation of the replacement, and it went well. The Marshall plan was good. Any others?
Yugoslavia in the sense that the cultures were at an unlivable state with eachother without significant autonomy. Bad from an economic perspective as the resulting nations are weaker than what a unified yugoslavia would have been today when one looks at gdp projections.
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In 1917's Russia too.
Worth remembering that Russia experienced three revolutions in the beginning of the 20th century: in winter of 1905, turning it into a constitutional monarchy at least de jure; in spring of 1917, turning that into a parliamentary republic; and in autumn of 1917, turning the parts that did not secede into a dictatorship that shortly became embroiled in a civil war. The Bolsheviks later did an impressive job of erasing the memory of the third being essentially a military coup against the second, despite their very name originating in (remarkably petty) name-calling in the parliament.
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That's a very bad example, as ordinary Russians lived MUCH better lives under the USSR than they did under the Czars, at least at that time. The Czarist empire was still mostly a feudal state, and most peasants lived with no education and no money, barely scraping by. Standards of living, while still much, much lower than what was achieved in Western Europe, were still much better than what came before.
Now, can we imagine a world where the Czar was replaced with a Western-style democracy, where the Russian population would have ended up much better than they did? It's possible, sure - but there are no guarantees.
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Well, who could've anticipated red plague to grip a whole country?
Thankfully Venezuelans aren't Muslim fanatics with a 40-50% chance of their parents being first cousins.
> and the citizens of neighboring countries who've had to reckon with the legacy of Chavez think about this.
Sure, just ask them about the legacy of Chevron in South America next.
If they're old enough ask them about the United Fruit Company.
> You can extend this to anything really with good results.
Your trick is not enough to overcome your ignorance of history.
> No valuable insight will be gleaned from chat boards and reddit in the immediate aftermath of these sorts of events.
Ridiculous. How exactly do you expect me to probe the feelings of an entire nation of people? Have CNN do it for me?
For one, immigrants are not representative of their country, they are so biased that they left.
But i think the opinion of venezuelans has leaked and it s pretty obvious his regime is not popular at home
> For one, immigrants are not representative of their country, they are so biased that they left.
That's close to 20% of their population. And the most relevant factor deciding if people fled or not was whether they could reach another country before Maduro closed the borders.
Venezuelans didn't leave because they were "biased", good grief. They left because they were suffering under poverty, hyperinflation and violence.
There’s still a selection bias involved, just as there is with Cubans in Florida.
Those that leave are mainly the ones with means and/or the ones who feel strongest about it.
The set of people that left their country is not random, and certainly statistically biased.
That's not what they said. They said people who left are inherently biased, because they had to leave, which makes perfect sense.
I don’t think any valuable insight is to be found in the opinions of migrants either in terms of what any of this means long term.
A lot of Iraqis were happy when Saddam was deposed. They certainly didn’t like what happened next.
So that equally applies to your comment here and renders it null?
If we can't talk about the method then I don't know how to get to good results
To me it seems like an obvious oversight that they didn’t acknowledge the irony of mentioning on this board not to read this board’s posts.
They could’ve actually done what they stated, talked about the people, instead of just a meta-criticism of HN, which is probably the #1 type of comment on threads on HN already.
And yes I’ll acknowledge this is a meta criticism of a meta criticism.
Yeah, I agree. But it’s also very hard to gather those voices in one place. Any thoughts on where to find these voices beside a personal network?
That's how you get the most reactionary voices. The ones that liked Maduro presumably stayed in Venezuela and didn't start complaining online.
True, but it is like saying that to know China you have to ask the nationalists in Taiwan. Or that to understand Italian resistance you have to ask the millions of people in Italy that supported fascism.
It doesn't work.
So if Americans don't like Trump then, say, Italy can unilaterally bomb San Francisco?
Or should this only be a one way street? Is dropping bombs to disapprove of elections how we're being adults in 2026?
It’s not a one-way street on principle. Italy could go do whatever it wanted. It’s a one-way street in capabilities to take action.
There isn’t anything stopping Italy, the sovereign state, from doing anything it thinks it could do. What is stopping it from bombing San Francisco (besides it not making sense whatsoever) would be that the US would physically stop the Italian Air Force and navy.
The US spend years building the UN and the system of international law and it benefits a lot from it. The US is like 4% of the world population and 2% of the area, but dominates pretty much anything you care to measure. It is really not in US interest to overthrow the current system. Its wild that the main threat to international order is coming from the US. Not just this latests development, but the talk of annexing Canada and Greenland, the undermining WTO and WHO etc. Read Hobbes, even the strong do not benefit from “jungle law”.
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The point is we should be adult enough in 2026 to have an international order that we can draw a line between our modern behavior and what we did in the bronze age.
If you think this kind of caveman-era diplomacy is the future And want humans to be a multi-planetary species then lol, good luck.
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It's also rather telling that nobody in Caracas seems to have really tried to stop the US from doing this, it doesn't take all that much to shoot down at least one helicopter.
You'd expect them to have air defenses on high alert 24/7 prepared to immediately respond to any US actions.
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Americans can delete Italy.
Venezuelans can't delete America.
Yes, a bit of a one way street.
If Americans delete Italy they will be the Pariah of the world for a very long time
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> Americans can delete Italy.
Boy, Americans really do have an overinflated sense of their power.
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I don’t know how many Americans actually approve of this. The left will hate it. Trump’s base has largely been isolationist.
Obviously if someone like Italy bombed us we would invade and beat the shit out of them. We did a two decade, trillions of dollars revenge tour for like 2700 people dying.
(I’m not advocating for any of this but US policy is pretty consistent. Part of the value of a US passport is knowing (and everyone else knowing) that the government will go to incredible lengths to get you back.)
I don't know either but I've spotted two comments in this thread that pretty much argued for that. Multiply that by the US population ratio vs HN size and it could really add up.
> Part of the value of a US passport is knowing (and everyone else knowing) that the government will go to incredible lengths to get you back.)
Is this even the case anymore?
The government has shown to turn a blind eye when natural disasters affect states that voted majority voted for the other party. Their own citizens.
If you were stuck overseas but are an outspoken Democrat, I would not count on your government to get you home.
> Trump’s base has largely been isolationist.
Given the Jan 6th insurrection attempt (which made trump ineligible for office) I think a clear eyed spectator thinking deeply about the US political situation would find that his base will think whatever he tells them to think
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The point is we say "well some people don't think much of their elected leader in X, so that justifies us destroying their cities, overthrowing their government and killing hundreds of thousands of people there!"
Alright, is this the global rule now? Where's the cutoff? Trump is getting 41%, is that low enough? Who gets to overthrow Washington? My vote is the Swedes, they seem pretty nice.
> We did a two decade, trillions of dollars revenge tour for like 2700 people dying.
Then what is the expected scale of a revenge tour for 48,422 fentanyl overdose deaths in 2024 and 76,282 in 2023?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/releases/20250514.html
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I’m American and I don’t like Trump. If Italy did bomb San Francisco and you asked me what I thought of that, I’d say I disapproved.
If China invaded overnight and absconded with Trump, I’d say I disapproved even though I don’t like him.
You say you'd disapprove a violent action. But when it actually happens? I've seen explicit support for Luigi from many otherwise apolitical and non-violent people.
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I’d be upset and disapprove, but I wouldn’t ask them to bring him back.
Sure, they can certainly try. Sovereignty is an illusion until it is tested.
Anyone can already bomb the United States, and I think most people here in the US just don't imagine it happening here, no matter how much we invite a military response.
The only country I could imagine doing this is North Korea, because, while we would carpet bomb them, they can delete Seoul from the map with traditional artillery that we can’t stop.
But I don’t think that their leaders are actually suicidal. They’ve played their hand pretty well over the years, for their own survival and enrichment (no pun intended.)
There is no such thing as a military response to the USA.
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Moral authority through physical superiority.
On the world stage I see everything on display that we try to teach our children to avoid. Lying, bullying, law breaking, it's all in our faces. And the real problem is that it is supported and even celebrated on television, in print, and socia media.
> Italy can unilaterally bomb San Francisco?
They can try.
I am not an expert but "Don't like" doesn't sound the same of multinational cartel organization overtaking countries, making 8 million people exilees.
To put this in perspective, Ukraine before Russian invasion had already lost 11 million people, that left the country because it was ruled by oligarchs and mobsters. 11 millions over 52 millions makes it a gran total of 21% of the population. Making it the fourth worse demographic decline in the world. Does it mean Russia was right?
If you have some hard numbers supporting how much Americans don't like Trump and how shit is their life under Trump, then ..maybe? (Also, why the USA, why not start with North Korea, Venezuela etc first.)
We kinda have the obligation to ensure that Earth is not a practical hell for many people.
"Bomb San Francisco" can mean many things, and it is ultimately a Trolley Problem[0], but the answer is not a simple no.
[0] : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem
"Bomb San Francisco"
Where does that come from? I've seen this verbatim in a few places. Let me guess, the s o c i a l m e d i a?
About the stupidest thing I’ve ever read here. Why does a US perspective not matter when the fucking US conducted the strike? If Russia decides trump stole the election in 2024 you’d just sit back and let them take over?
Many Americans were asking for just this.
You simply can’t. Just enjoy the show. Sorry, last 5 years have been a complete destruction of common sense and logic, just focus on something else to remain sane.
The fish celebrate when the bear is hunted. It does not mean order has been restored to the wild.
Yeah this is just flawed. Even people close to what is happening can be ignorant/brainwashed or (and even more likely) have ulterior motives. Venezuela doesn't exactly come across as a sophisticated nation.
> Venezuela doesn't exactly come across as a sophisticated nation.
Yeah this is just flawed.
We have an ongoing war in Europe because one President tried to remove the President of another country. You can perform all sorts of mental gymnastics to justify military actions, and depending on who you ask you will always get the answers you want.
I'm not arguing the point you're making. I'm saying that these discussions on these sorts of things on chat boards populated by privileged western nerds and conspicuous progressives have little merit and are merely a reflection of biases/ego of the privileged western nerd when put up against the lived experiences of people in Venezuela and neighboring states.
You're not really saying anything, in fact, just bashing everyone else's opinion.
And note that we can look at history and see that, sometimes, people's honest opinions about their own country and what is best for it happen to be wrong. Libyans were extremely happy when Gaddafi was killed - and now they're living in much worse conditions than when he was alive. Many Afghans welcomed the US toppling of the brutal taliban regime, and now after twenty years of brutal war, the taliban are back in power as if nothing happened.
It would be absolutely wonderful if the same fate doesn't happen to Venezuela. I sincerely wish and hope that they will have a provisional government which quickly organizes free and fair elections and that a much better leader is elected who can start reversing the damage Maduro did. I don't think this is particularly likely to happen, sadly, looking at the history and track-record of violent regime change by foreign powers. This observation remains true regardless of what the people of Venezuela think and hope, sadly.
This is abusing the concept of lived experience (which by the way is an ivory tower privileged term)
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You mean one unelected dictator tried to annex a neighboring country and wanted to remove the elected president of that country.
Please don't spread Russian propaganda by taking over their talking points.
Lol, saying the invading countries is bad is Russian propaganda, ok buddy.
That is not a reason why there is a war. The Ukrainian war is an existential one, a continuation of multiple acts of genocide performed by russians for centuries.
That is a big difference between war in Ukraine and war in Iraq or Venezuela.
Russia has unlimited objectives: destroy Ukrainian identity and sovereignty. Annex the country.
While USA has limited objectives, like to overthrow the government.
Russia would be very happy to install a puppet regime in Ukraine, as long as they had some certainty this regime would be stable and subservient to their interests. We know for a fact that they don't care about necessarily invading other countries as long as those countries are subservient: they are not planning to annex Belarus, nor did they have any real problems with Ukraine as long as it was led by their preferred leaders and it was not making any overtures to NATO or the EU.
The exact same thing will happen in Venezuela: the USA will be happy with any leader that they have confidence will represent US interests, stop doing any business with Russia or Iran, and that they think will last. If instead another member of Maduro's party looks likely to win power, either now or in the near future, they will certainly not allow that to happen, even if it were to happen as a result of free elections.
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Overthrowing government (and installing puppet government) is considered an unlimited objective.
This is what Russians would presumably also do if able.
So your point doesn't stand
Yes and as a corollary, it has nothing to do with Venezuela having the largest oil reserves of any country.
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Information that is known to be wrong is still useful. The immediate talking points on both sides reveal quite a bit if you can read between the lines. Everyone is lying but the lies themselves are revealing.
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You will soon see many comments "misteriously" disappear without leaving traces, especially the ones telling the truth about US, "democratic values", "rule of law" and their similars. The better the comment, the faster it "evaporates". As such comments do in Russia or China related discussions, whatever the exact mechanism is.
This forum is not for you to get information about the american "public opinion". It is rather used to shape it (as a myriad of other similar forums in the "free world").
There's no such thing as a comment "disappearing without leaving traces" on HN, except in rare cases when an author asks us explicitly to delete their post and we do. Other than that, the most that happens is that a comment gets killed (a.k.a. marked as [dead]), and anyone who wants to can see those comments in their, er, glory by turning on 'showdead' in their profile. This is in the FAQ: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html.
We don't moderate this place to promote (or demote) any particular political agenda, let alone try to "shape" public opinion, something which sounds even more boring than soulless. As long as you're implying secret sinister processes taking place here, I think you should include some specific links so readers can make up their own minds.