I don't think that blog says what you think it does.
Tao is using a deliberately limited model to make a probablistic claim, not saying he'd make a 10⁸:1 bet that the election was rigged.
The election may well have been rigged anyway, it doesn't change the fact that Maduro was the one sitting in the president's chair and carrying out the president's duties.
He's not: https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2024/08/02/what-are-the-odds-...
https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2024/08/02/what-are-the-odds-...
I don't think that blog says what you think it does.
Tao is using a deliberately limited model to make a probablistic claim, not saying he'd make a 10⁸:1 bet that the election was rigged.
The election may well have been rigged anyway, it doesn't change the fact that Maduro was the one sitting in the president's chair and carrying out the president's duties.
He is not. He is as legit as Putin is. They fake elections.
Putin doesn't need to fake elections. His approval rating is very-very high. You need to be russian to know that.
Why would he need to tamper with election if he has?