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Comment by dpedu

3 days ago

This seems like the type of comment the parent comment is referring to. It's day 1 of the invasion. Why have you concluded the US is unable to put anything in the place of Venezuela's previous government?

> Why have you concluded the US is unable to put anything in the place of Venezuela's previous government?

Any student of history would be skeptical. The US record after interference in a country is abysmal. Relatively recent failures: Iraq, Afghanistan. Less recent failures: Nicaragua and throughout Central America.

  • I would include Libya. Gaddafi died, we were happy, Libya became a hellhole with open slave markets. The same can easily happen here if they don't have a good plan.

  • Afghanistan was a weird "how long to we have to pretend to give a shit before we give it back to the guys we never really wanted to take it from in the first place" situation.

    Iraq was a textbook example of why you don't dismantle the entire administrative state.

    I don't think either is relevant here. Other central american shenanigans are the better reference points IMO.

  • On the other hand, Chile was a success. Not ethically, of course, but they accomplished what they wanted.

    • They got lucky, the economy needed to be rebuilt and the Pinochet government had no idea how to do it and not much interest in it. So they put the economists who wrote the "Ladrillo" in charge because it sounded like a good plan. This combination of a stable government combined with libertarian economic policies lead to the success. Usually you don't get this combination under dictatorship.

  • As of 2025, Iraq looks better than it used to.

    No strongman in charge, sorta-kinda democratic government (more democratic than almost anywhere else in the Arab world), violence has subsided, the country didn't disintegrate into pieces unlike Yugoslavia, the economy has grown moderately, and they haven't become an Iranian puppet regime.

    Frankly, by the standards of the Near and Middle East, this is very much not an abysmal failure.

    The insurgency that preceded this was very bad, though. No denying that. But some other modern nations have such insurgencies in their recent history, such as Ireland, and that didn't stop them from developing towards prosperity.

  • It took decades for the US to stabilize itself as a nation after its birth.

    Why would you think Iraq would find it easy to stabilize itself post Hussein, such that you'd declare their future void already. Iraq is not yet a failure and is dramatically more stable than it was under Hussein (dictatorships bring hyper instability universally, which is why they have to constantly murder & terrify everybody to try to keep the system from instantly imploding due to the perpetual instability inherent in dictatorship).

    Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Kuwait, and most of Eastern Europe (which the US was extremely deep in interfering with for decades in competition with the USSR). You can also add Colombia to that list, it is a successful outcome thus far of US interference.

    I like the part where people pretend the vast interference in positive outcomes don't count. The US positively, endlessly interfered in Europe for the past century. That interference has overwhelmingly turned out well.

    • And what about the precedent it sets for other world powers?

      Why shouldn't Russia or China just do the same and interfere with the leadership of countries they don't like.

      Also it is impossible to argue the cost of the war in Iraq was worth the benefit, even if we agree Iraq is in a better place now then it was under Hussein.

      4 replies →

    • "Don't worry, the democracy will eventually trickle down".

      There is such thing as a post-Vietnam America, and its record is pretty bad.

    • "That interference has overwhelmingly turned out well."

      What an absurd thing to say. The US doesn't only overthrow dictatorships - it supports them too, as it suits its self-interest. Why not include the US interference when it SUPPORTED Hussein and later changed its mind - still think "interference turns out well" after backing a genocidal monster, supporting his invasion of a neighbour, invading twice and related deaths of 400 000 people?

      Countries stabilise over time, that's what their people make happen. You ignore Indonesia, Iran, El Salvador, Nicaragua and dozens of disaster of US imperialism but give credit to the US when their populations rebuild them.

      The US has done some positive things but they're the convenient accidents you've cherry picked to make your point.

      4 replies →

    • > The US positively, endlessly interfered in Europe for the past century. That interference has overwhelmingly turned out well.

      Are we counting the financial support that Wall Street and the budding CIA boys at Sullivan & Cromwell gave Hitler to harass the Soviet Union, which ultimately had to take care of the problem they created, in the "turning out well" column here?

      17 replies →

    • Kuwait is a dictatorship. South Korea and Taiwan were, too until the 80s-90s. Especially, in the case of Taiwan it is unclear what US intereference there has been politically: the Chinese fought hard to be free of interference and although in Taiwan they need US support I don't think they are as controlled as South Korea and Japan (which has been invaded and "vassalised"). If interefence there is it is indeed to literally interfere to foster separation with the mainland.

      Re. Iraq, interestingly the US invasion has vastly increased Iran's influence in the country because the majority is Shia while Saddam was from a Sunni tribe.

      1 reply →

  • eh, germany and japan seemed to go okay, grenada too. korea kind of a mixed bag (it took decades for it to not suck)

    • Korea, by what metric? South Korea was through the 50 poorer than North Korea, North Korea was considered the roaring growth economy, huge success of planning and leadership.

      Park Chung Hee took a country that could not be a functional democracy, provided leadership and put it onto the path of economic success. Iirc, the reduction in poverty through that period is the fastest in human history (when you consider that China, that is an incredible statement).

      I think people (still) assume both that democracy is superior economically for every situation and that people who don't have any food care about being unable to vote...neither of these things is obviously true. Indeed, in the latter case, we now have a good test case of poor countries adopting democracy early and they have generally not been successful as power rotates between various quasi-dictators who give massive handouts to the poor to retain power (without doing anything actually useful).

      2 replies →

    • > grenada too

      Grenada is something of a joke in this context - the entire thing came about because the communist government fell apart and started fighting internally, so it's pretty likely the regime would have shortly collapsed with or without the invasion

    • The scale of investment and commitment was orders of magnitude larger, as was the utter devastation inflicted for years before hand. Incomparable.

I conclude that you cannot apply consequentialism when the outcome is unknown, so the US has done something immoral and illegal, end of story.

  • Idk man, if my country was ruled by a dictator who faked elections I would be very happy to see some outsiders removing him. Kidnapping (and hopefully jailing for a long time) anyone who is in power by cheating the election is a big moral win in my book.

    • Awesome. I think we should also extend that to leaders who have increasingly overwhelming evidence that they planned to and intended to overturn elections (just because they failed isn't an excuse, attempted murder is still a crime)...

    • Amazing to see so many people spelling out their rationalization in such simple terms.

  • > cannot apply consequentialism when the outcome is unknown

    Can you not substitute the mean expected outcome where the factual outcome is not yet known?

    • If you have the data, are extremely careful and build a coalition, maybe. This admin has done none of that and the answer if asked will be “eat shit”. Blows my fucking mind that there are apologists for this.

  • Recklessness is immoral, and look how the discourse normalizes it so cleverly.

> Why have you concluded the US is unable to put anything in the place of Venezuela's previous government?

Because they failed doing that in Iraq and Afghanistan, both cases where they did try, and there is also Libya (where they did not try all that much, if at all, I'll give you that). I mean, they did put some of their puppets in both Kabul and Bagdad, but the puppets in Kabul eventually got swept by the Talibans, while the puppets in Bagdad switched over to Iran's side by 2015-ish.

As far as I can ascertain, there is no invasion. Just a special ops kidnapping.

It is unclear what will happen next, but likely the regime or large elements of it will survive. Perhaps a more moderate faction will take control? That would be the best case scenario.

  • > there is no invasion. Just a special ops kidnapping

    When one nation’s military illegally enters another nation’s sovereign territory to carry out military actions, that’s usually called an invasion.

    • I would not agree. Intelligence operatives are often in place for long durations in hostile sovereign territory, and some were likely used in this event. Their presence is not an invasion.

      Air operations also are not seen as invasions, and the recent stealth strikes by the U.S. in Iran are not seen this way.

      It appears to me that armed troops in place that are taking and holding territory for a prolonged duration are the definition.

      The dictionary definition below is "the incursion of an army for conquest or plunder."

      https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/invasion

      Is Maduro and his wife "plunder?" That would stretch this meaning, I think.

      13 replies →

  • Surely the best case scenario is the regime collapsing, all collaborators of Maduro ending up dead or in jail and then the guy who actually won the election or a women who would have won it ending up in power?

    • Of course that would be great, but pretty unlikely with just a decapitation strike. Like most dictators, Maduro was not holding the country in a superhuman iron grip, but instead the representative of various elites and factions that kept him in power for their own interests. However given how easy this operation has been, there is a suspicion that one or more factions colluded with the US, and may now be consolidating control - and then maybe a peaceful transition back to democracy? We shall see.

  • No - Trump has just announced that he intends for the US to "run" Venezuela for the time being and that that will include ... shock horror... American oil companies taking a significant role in the country's oil infrastructure.

    • > shock horror... American oil companies taking a significant role in the country's oil infrastructure.

      And to think that Dick Cheney just barely didn't live to see this. (Died November 2025)

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  • > The president is in late-stage dementia, and his cabinet couldn't put together a peanut butter & jelly sandwich.

    Well, they just managed to organize the kidnapping of a head of state!

    • You think the business executives in this administration managed to organize the kidnapping of a head of state? Trump pointed at it and a massive machinery which was built over hundreds of years made it happen. People who have been doing this kind of work for decades organized this. Good thing those same business executives are also hell-bent on destroying the machinery, I suppose.

  • During the 2024 campaign, oil executives met at Mar-a-Lago and agreed to pay $1B to Trump’s campaign. It is one or more of those men who will be interfacing with the Venezuelan generals about shifting their oil away from China.

  • I still don’t get these kinds of comments. Is it supposed to be funny because it’s so hyperbolic? I’d hope debates here would at least acknowledge that he’s pursuing some broader aims even if most of it is probably just to benefit his friends. Does anyone really think his actions lack any ulterior motives especially with how the cabinet is selected? You can‘t deny that he has more agency then a Government-by-committee-by-proxy like Bidens final years were like, where it really felt like it was dementia taking over. I feel it’s absurd to claim that a president is incompetent for not serving his people if that is not his goal in the first place.