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Comment by conception

6 days ago

I think have thousands of artillery shells aimed at Seoul is the larger deterrent.

The nukes are to deter the US. They have been steadily increasing their missile range to first reach regional bases like Guam and now the all the way to the continental USA, and are now even launching a nuclear powered and nuclear armed ballistic missile submarine https://www.hisutton.com/DPRK-SSN-Update.html

  • The nukes are a bargaining chip (disarmament). Basically, if your country has the human and tech capital to develop a nuke, you probably should because it's free money.

    I don't believe that NK's nukes deter the US from doing anything. Would NK nuke Guam and risk getting carpet-bombed with nukes for endless days and nights until even the ants are dead? Artillery on Seoul doesn't matter. The US would just ask SK to evacuate it.

    The US doesn't do anything about the DPRK because it's not economically relevant (i.e. it doesn't have the world's largest oil reserves etc). In an ironic way, their economy being closed-off and mostly unintegrated with the Western world maintains the peace.

    • The nukes have many roles perhaps but I think the fully developed weapons are for retaliatory strike.

      They are the North Korean leadership saying that if the US (or China or anyone really) tries to surgically decapitate them (like the US just did in Venezuela) then the nukes are used to take the attackers with them

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    • > Artillery on Seoul doesn't matter. The US would just ask SK to evacuate it.

      How do you evacuate 10 to 15 million(counting Incheon in) of people, fast? Where to?

      1 reply →

The importance of this is often exaggerated. It's significant, but it's not that significant. RAND Corporation modeled this, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA619-1.html

It assumes ~130,000 casualties from a worst-case surprise attack on population centers by the North.

If a conflict started ramping up, evacuations would rapidly shrink this.

A significant deterrent, sure. But it rapidly becomes less and less meaningful as the DPRK builds its nuclear arsenal.