Comment by kamens

2 days ago

The minimum recognition Scott Adams deserves should be having updated the world model of those who read his blog.

It is hard to remember how thoroughly Trump's presidential run was seen as a joke in 2015. I bet most people can't remember and somehow think they always knew Trump stood a real chance. That is likely a lie.

Scott made specific, reasoned, unique arguments about why Trump would win, with high conviction. This was at a time when it was about as non-consensus and unpopular as possible to do so (it wasn't just that people didn't want Trump to win, there was a complete dismissal of the possibility from both sides of the aisle).

The fact that Scott was right, and continued to be right when forecasting much about politics, taught me a lot about the nature of the world we live in. Scott clearly understood something important that I did not at the time.

7 comments

kamens

Reply
anonnon  1 day ago

There's a saying in investing that a lot of analysts get famous for being right "once in a row."

croes  2 days ago

Or it’s survivorship bias

  • kamens  2 days ago

    Genuine question: did you read his blog and arguments in detail?

    • trymas  1 day ago

      Not OC, but:

      > Adams wrote about the incident (indirect link, via the Metatalk thread). He wrote that he makes contrarian predictions as calculated bets that in the unlikely event they pan out, he would get credit. [0]

      Also to add - from Adams’ wiki[1], there are more examples of a bunch of bold contrarian takes that never became true.

      I see you fulfilled one of his dreams and credited to him one of the guesses.

      [0] from another comment in this thread, exposing how Adams was praising himself from third character.

      Link to comment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Adams?wprov=sfti1#Politi...

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