Comment by epolanski
1 month ago
Armchair internet analysts think they know better than the biggest car producer in the world that reinvented the modern supply chain.
"But look at Tesla market cap!!!"
Toyota had the right intuition: focus on EVs when the global sales will make sense for it, meanwhile avoid throwing good money after bad like most legacy automakers did with EVs.
Toyota is not immune to throwing good money after bad. They have dumped billions into hydrogen fuel cell research and production over three decades. Last year they sold more Venzas than hydrogen cars.
Notably, the Venza was discontinued after the 2024 model year and those sales figures represent inventory leftover from prior years.
Yes doing business involves taking risks.
Avoiding EV fomo when the market wasn't there was a good calculated risk.
You give them credit for taking a risk on hydrogen but not the manufacturers who took a risk on EVs? Interesting.
5 replies →
> Armchair internet analysts think they know better than the biggest car producer in the world
The car producer that still seems to think hydrogen is the future? The armchair internet analysts seem closer to correct.
~40% of global car sales are EV.
25% in 2025. Of those, the overwhelming majority in China. If you take it out of the equation it's around 10%.
EV sales have fallen YoY in North America.
Sales fell 4% in North America last year. EV share is more like 20% globally and seeing a YoY increase every year for at least 10 years now.
Yeah, what on earth are people even talking about here? EVs are clearly destroying ICE in the car market in terms of growth rates. Even without any government mandates, I highly doubt most new car sales in a decade will be ICE. There's just too many advantages to EVs, and ICE's few advantages keep slipping away.
The idea that complex Rube Goldberg machines powered by fire and explosions are somehow going to have a future compared to devices with minimal moving parts powered by a fundamental force of nature in its most pure form is absurd on the surface.
Americans and American companies often hold onto technologies long after they are clearly done for in the belief that hope and marketing and stubborn refusal to let go of some romantic view that gas stations and loud noisy slow devices that require constant maintenance are cool.
Toyota and others are rightly betting the American taste will be slow to swing, that our leadership is spineless and has no forward vision, and that they can keep monetizing old technology. What they are getting wrong is the inexorable force of economic and technological reality will strangle ICE manufacturers in a slow then sudden death. BYD, MG, etc are r through the regulatory grind while building their production and logistical capacity. Once they can penetrate the US market veil it’ll be over for Ford, GM, Toyota, and others. Tesla will have to cut margin so fast it’ll be dizzying.
If you’ve driven these Chinese EVs you’ll know the writing is on the wall, and as these legacy automakers cancel their last gasp attempt to be relevant in the future, they’ve ended their role in world manufacturing in the quixotic notion that hope is a strategy.