Comment by ortusdux
4 days ago
"Canada has agreed to allow an annual quota of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into the country at the tariff rate of just 6.1%"
https://electricautonomy.ca/data-trackers/ev-sales-data/2025...
"Canada recorded 45,366 new zero-emission vehicle registrations in Q3 2025, accounting for 9.4 per cent of all new vehicle registrations in the quarter, according to the latest report from Statistics Canada."
"Of the total, 26,792 units were battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), while 18,574 were plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). "
So this would represent about 1/4 of current annual EV sales.
> He said there would be an initial cap of 49,000 vehicles on Chinese EV exports to Canada, growing to 70,000 over five years.
I always wonder why people settle on a number like 49,000 when 50,000 is sitting right there, looking you in the face.
There are some theories of negotiation that say it's good to pick an overly specific number like that specifically to imply that you've given it thought and aren't willing to change it without getting something in return.
49,000 is just as a specific as 48,624 is.
Besides it sounds like they were specifically looking at quarterly amounts of EVs sold when they made the deal
Same reason they set prices at $49.95
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In a country with 42 million inhabitants this doesn't seem like a big change even for canada, let alone for the global economy.
It’s a complete sea change. I feel Canada only set tariffs on cars out of some deference to the US auto industry. I don’t want to use slippery slope thinking, but this to me smells like rolling out a Canadian auto market that is not dependent on the US.
For the average family, being able to spend significantly less on a car is a big deal.
Keep in mind that the US auto industry is also very much a Canadian one. A lot of Big Three stuff happens across the border in Ontario.
But all the policy support that would have let North American automakers build up a competitive position with China is gone, so this is more about just acknowledging reality now.
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It was about the mess around Huawei exec if I recall correctly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extradition_case_of_Meng_Wanzh...
> ...smells like rolling out a Canadian auto market that is not dependent on the US.
Feels like being dependent on both the Chinese _and_ the Americans to me, which doesn't exactly feel like a win.
It'll be interesting to see how the Chinese EVs compete "fairly" in Canada. North America has had a lack of choice in automobiles at least as long as I can remember. There are so many cars that are available in Europe or Asia that I wish were available here. But at the same time consumer choices are also very different. So will be interesting to see what the uptake of Chinese EVs are like.
> I feel Canada only set tariffs on cars out of some deference to the US auto industry
That is exactly what they did.
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/electric-vehicl...
> The tariffs follow a May announcement by U.S. President Joe Biden of 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese-made EVs.
> Trudeau said on Sunday night that he had discussed China and other national geopolitical issues with U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan.
> smells like rolling out a Canadian auto market that is not dependent on the US
The last federal election was almost entirely decided by which leader made the best pitch to Canadians on who would be better equipped to handle Donald Trump and to make the economy less dependent on the USA as a whole.
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It’s just the beginning is my guess. If BYD or CATL commits to a factory /assembly in Canada I would expect limits to be raised on this as progress is made. Or if this goes well we could see limits raised as China drops Canadian product tariffs further.
The current (or next) admin would take Alberta and Saskatchewan. They'll propose that the residents secede from Canada and join the US.
There's probably enough political willpower in these provinces and money (paid by the US) to turn this into a real movement.
And from there, Yukon and the Northwest Territories are easy next dominoes.
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My gut reaction is there is no way China is setting up vehicle manufacturing or assembly in Canada because the American President would go absolutely nuts. Canada is increasing ties and joint ventures with Canada but manufacturing would be a bridge too far for our little man in the White House.
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If you're selling 49000 electric vehicles, and the tariff reduced from $CAN 50k (estimated cost of a new electric vehicle; 100% tariff tax) to 3k (6%), saving your customers $2.3B, that seems significant to me?
I'm only trying to give a feel for them numbers, I did check the average selling price for a new BYD
Cars last ~25 years, 49,000 * 25 = 1.2 million Chinese EV’s on the road in a steady state.
Not such as huge shift in total, but EV’s are still a small percentage of total vehicle sales in Canada.
25 years?! Hardly
https://www.brokerlink.ca/blog/how-long-do-cars-last-in-cana...
> In 2020, the Automotive Industries Association of Canada (AIA Canada) reported the average age of Canadian vehicles was 9.7 years, though many industry experts believe that number is closer to 10.5 years today.
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~25 years isn't the average when you account for accidents, rust, and useful economic life of a car. We had 200+ car crashes due to weather in a single day this week in Waterloo, Ontario.
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I think the precedent is big. It does seem like an attempt to adjust of their sudden drop in EV sales last year -
https://www.thestar.com/news/canadian-ev-sales-fell-off-a-cl...
> In a country with 42 million inhabitants this doesn't seem like a big change even for canada, let alone for the global economy.
The premier ("governor") of Ontario, where GM, Ford, Toyota, etc, have manufacturing plants feels otherwise:
* https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-canadian-el...
big auto style manufacturing was never going to be competitive, and propping it up is a jobs program. Just pay them to dig holes and fill them in, and let Canadians have a competitive vehicle market
As an outsider (EU citizen), the message it sends is that they’re willing to negotiate more with China, on a product that would hurt Tesla sales. No, it won’t move the global needle, but the warmer positioning towards China is interesting.
The thing I am wondering is if there was an unwritten agreement to build Chinese BEV plants in Canada. This would give China access to the US market without tariffs and would give Canada manufacturing jobs.
Wait till Canadians find out how good Chinese cars for their price.
I suspect the limit will be revised upward ahead of schedule.
This is a “0 to 1” change in international relations. This doesn’t bode well for Trump’s trade war.
Shitty napkin math says china is saving about $1-$1.5B, so I agree, I'm not seeing the needle more here. What _does_ make sense is that this agreement will continue to evolve over time. What _doesn't_ make sense is the 10-40% battery capacity loss because of temperature, for EVs in canada. I think newer EVs manage temperature issues like this better than older models, but I am unfamiliar with chinese EVs so I can't speak to them.
Where would China be getting savings, here? Unless they are also dropping some tariffs? Canada lowering tariffs saves Canadians money.
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How are plugin hybrids considered zero emission?
EV sales are going to rapidly expand with Chinese BEVs. They are much cheaper and cost competitive.