Comment by Retric
4 days ago
Cars last ~25 years, 49,000 * 25 = 1.2 million Chinese EV’s on the road in a steady state.
Not such as huge shift in total, but EV’s are still a small percentage of total vehicle sales in Canada.
4 days ago
Cars last ~25 years, 49,000 * 25 = 1.2 million Chinese EV’s on the road in a steady state.
Not such as huge shift in total, but EV’s are still a small percentage of total vehicle sales in Canada.
25 years?! Hardly
https://www.brokerlink.ca/blog/how-long-do-cars-last-in-cana...
> In 2020, the Automotive Industries Association of Canada (AIA Canada) reported the average age of Canadian vehicles was 9.7 years, though many industry experts believe that number is closer to 10.5 years today.
If the average car on the road is 10.5 years old, and you assume a flat demand, it is consistent with the lifespan of all cars being exactly 21 years.
(if you look at a random sampling of 100 cars, 5 will be from this year, 5 from 2025, and so on until you've counted the 5 cars from 2005 ; the average age will be 10.5 years)
If you assume that there are more cars sold every year (due to demographics: way more humans are alive today than in 2005), then this is consistent with a useful lifespan of 25 years or more per car since the "10.5" average is skewed younger because of the age pyramid bias.
It's poorly worded, but the rest of the article implies that's average lifespan, not average age.
“The average car lifespan now is closer to 322,000 kilometres, which works out to around 10 to 12 years for most drivers.”
“While the average vehicle in Canada may be designed to last around a decade, there are several factors, some of which are within your control and some of which are not, that can impact how long your car lasts.”
My last two cars were scrapped at 13 years due to rust effects.
3 replies →
Recent CATL independent battery testing has demonstrated 1.25 million mile longevity for battery modules produced. While EV uptake may take time, the EVs that are built will be with us for some time. That equates to 62 years of service life assuming ~20k miles/year
Propulsion is not the issue. Quality cars' engines last just fine for decades, if maintained.
Cars in the north have major rust problems, even if you're exceptionally careful, from exposure to snow and road salt.
2 replies →
Is batteries the limiting factor? I would have assumed road salt + rusting the bejesus out of the car's metal would be the limiting factor.
> One final factor that can impact how long your car lasts is good, old-fashioned luck. Unfortunately, luck is one factor completely out of your control. You have control over the way you drive, but not the way others drive. Even if you are a defensive driving expert, you can still find yourself involved in a car accident.
So the numbers are calculated including traffic collisions in the life span calculation.
I wonder what the actual number is if you exclude traffic collisions? "How often should I expect to have to replace my car" and "How long should I expect a car to last" aren't quite the same question.
I would say they are the same question if you expect to always replace the car at its end of life. I don't see the distinction you're making.
~25 years isn't the average when you account for accidents, rust, and useful economic life of a car. We had 200+ car crashes due to weather in a single day this week in Waterloo, Ontario.
The average car in the us is 12 years old, so expected life of 25 seems reasonable. Not all make it that long but many will
This argument is akin to "80 years definitely can't be the average life expectancy. The number must not be taking premature death into account ; I hear about teens dying all the time"
The average car in Canada is 10.5 years old, in a steady state you double that to 2 * 10.5 =21 years lifespan on average. However the country isn’t in a steady state in 2005 there where 33.5 million people in Canada in 2025 that hit 41.5 million.
So because the number of new cars purchased each year is increasing the average age is significantly below 1/2 the average car’s lifespan.