Comment by fartfeatures 2 days ago Which makes the prediction market more accurate. 5 comments fartfeatures Reply nkrisc 8 hours ago Until the tail starts wagging the dog. xpe 6 hours ago As long as we realize that prediction market accuracy is not all we care about.See also: one can have very high economic efficiency with very high inequality, war, disease, misery, etc. pjc50 10 hours ago "You provide the gambling, I'll provide the war" snowmobile 2 days ago Not really, for the same reason entrapment isn't usually seen as an accurate way to gather information for law enforcement. See also Goodhart's law and overfitting. intended 2 days ago Eh… sort of? In a sense, they become less accurate, because the prediction market is the causative event, not an independent observer.
xpe 6 hours ago As long as we realize that prediction market accuracy is not all we care about.See also: one can have very high economic efficiency with very high inequality, war, disease, misery, etc.
snowmobile 2 days ago Not really, for the same reason entrapment isn't usually seen as an accurate way to gather information for law enforcement. See also Goodhart's law and overfitting.
intended 2 days ago Eh… sort of? In a sense, they become less accurate, because the prediction market is the causative event, not an independent observer.
Until the tail starts wagging the dog.
As long as we realize that prediction market accuracy is not all we care about.
See also: one can have very high economic efficiency with very high inequality, war, disease, misery, etc.
"You provide the gambling, I'll provide the war"
Not really, for the same reason entrapment isn't usually seen as an accurate way to gather information for law enforcement. See also Goodhart's law and overfitting.
Eh… sort of? In a sense, they become less accurate, because the prediction market is the causative event, not an independent observer.