← Back to context Comment by fartfeatures 25 days ago Which makes the prediction market more accurate. 5 comments fartfeatures Reply nkrisc 24 days ago Until the tail starts wagging the dog. xpe 24 days ago As long as we realize that prediction market accuracy is not all we care about.See also: one can have very high economic efficiency with very high inequality, war, disease, misery, etc. intended 25 days ago Eh… sort of? In a sense, they become less accurate, because the prediction market is the causative event, not an independent observer. snowmobile 25 days ago Not really, for the same reason entrapment isn't usually seen as an accurate way to gather information for law enforcement. See also Goodhart's law and overfitting. pjc50 24 days ago "You provide the gambling, I'll provide the war"
xpe 24 days ago As long as we realize that prediction market accuracy is not all we care about.See also: one can have very high economic efficiency with very high inequality, war, disease, misery, etc.
intended 25 days ago Eh… sort of? In a sense, they become less accurate, because the prediction market is the causative event, not an independent observer.
snowmobile 25 days ago Not really, for the same reason entrapment isn't usually seen as an accurate way to gather information for law enforcement. See also Goodhart's law and overfitting.
Until the tail starts wagging the dog.
As long as we realize that prediction market accuracy is not all we care about.
See also: one can have very high economic efficiency with very high inequality, war, disease, misery, etc.
Eh… sort of? In a sense, they become less accurate, because the prediction market is the causative event, not an independent observer.
Not really, for the same reason entrapment isn't usually seen as an accurate way to gather information for law enforcement. See also Goodhart's law and overfitting.
"You provide the gambling, I'll provide the war"