Comment by troupo

20 days ago

Lol. "random leftists"

First two come directly from OpenAI, Anthropic and others

Last one is literally made rounds even on HN e.g. Klarna bringing back their support staff after they tried to replace them with AI.

Last one is irrelevant. Of course some companies are miscalculating.

OpenAI never claimed they had achieved AGI internally. Sam was very obviously joking, and despite the joke being so obvious he even clarified hours later.

>In a post to the Reddit forum r/singularity, Mr Altman wrote “AGI has been achieved internally”, referring to artificial general intelligence – AI systems that match or exceed human intelligence.

>Mr Altman then edited his original post to add: “Obviously this is just memeing, y’all have no chill, when AGI is achieved it will not be announced with a Reddit comment.”

Dario has not said "we are months away from software jobs being obsolete". He said:

>"I think we will be there in three to six months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code"

He's maybe off by some months, but not at all a bad prediction.

Arguing with AI skeptics reminds me of debating other very zealous ideologues. It's such a strange thing to me.

Like, just use the stuff. It's right there. It's mostly the people using the stuff vs. the people who refuse to use it because they feel it'll make them ideologically impure, or they used it once two years ago when it was way worse and haven't touched it since.

  • The insecurity is mind-boggling. So many engineers afraid to touch this stuff for one reason or another.

    I pride myself in being an extremely capable engineer who can solve any problem when given the right time and resources.

    But now, random unskilled people can do in an afternoon what it might have taken me a week or more to do before. Of course, I know their work might be filled with major security issues, or terrible architectural decisions and hidden tech debt that will eventually grind development to a complete halt.

    I can be negative and point out these issues, or I can adopt these tools myself, and have the skilled hand required to keep things on rails. Now what I can do in a week cannot be matched by an unskilled engineer in an afternoon, because we have the same velocity multipliers.

    I remember being such a purist in my youth that I didn't even want autocomplete or intellisense, because I feared it would affect my recall or stunt my growth. How far we have come. How I code has changed completely in the last year.

    I code 8-20 hours a day, all day. I actively work on several projects at once, flipping between contexts to check results, review code, iterate on design/implementation, hand off new units of work to various agents. It is not a perfect process, I am constantly screaming and pulling my hair out over how stupid and forgetful and stubborn these tools can be sometimes. My output has still dramatically increased, and I have plenty extra time to ensure the quality of the code is secure and good enough.

    I've given up on expecting perfection from code I didn't write myself; but what else is new? Any skilled individual who has managed engineers before knows you have to get over this quickly and accept that code from other engineers will not match your standards 100%.

    Your role is to develop and enforce guidelines and processes which ensure that any code which hits production has been thoroughly reviewed, made secure and performant. There might be some stupid inline metacomments from the LLM that slip through, but if your processes are tight enough, you can produce much more code with correct interfaces, even if the insides aren't perfect. Even then, targeted refactors are more painless than ever.

    Engineers who only know how to code, and at a relatively mediocre level, which I imagine is the majority of engineers now in the field who got into it because of the money, are probably feeling the heat and worried that they won't be employable. I do not share that fear, provided that anyone at all is employable.

    When running a business, you'll still need to split the workload, especially as keeping pace with competition becomes an increasingly brutal exercise. The money is still in the industry, and people with money will still find ways to use it to develop an edge.