Comment by TZubiri
1 day ago
I think the war ones are the only real concern.
In the context of legislating prediction markets or not, sports is not a concern at all.
Whether it's a net positive or negative for important shit like war and corruption, we'll see, but if it helps in the important stuff, but damages sports, sorry bud.
Assassination in political battles could theoretically be an issue. In the recent Trump vs Harris one, approx $3bn was bet and an assassination attempt was made although not for betting purposes one presumes.
You could probably hire a gunman for much less than $3bn. I don't know if the crypto markets are anonymous enough to get away with it though.
First - I can not comprehend how you could possibly have a charitable interpretation on the war point and how it might have a net positive. I'm not trying to be condescending or anything, I would like to hear a single positive for being able to make BTC bets on killing people.
Second - even if you are not one of the millions of Americans that give a shit about sports, there is still a massive fraud implications just by the existence of crypto prediction markets. All it takes is one bad call to changed the outcome of game. The Superbowl last year had over $1 billion wagered on it.
If I live in a country that is under threat of being attacked by U.S. it is nice to have a website where I can look to get a reasonable probability that the attack happens
The existence of the odds making for a way increases the odds a war happens to begin with.
That figure will also be hugely unreliable, because as we've seen, there is tremendous incentive for insiders to leverage their information immediately before it's relevant.
If the odds sit at 97% NO for weeks or months, then 3 hours before the invasion an insider makes their play, you would have to be constantly monitoring this market, interpret that spike correctly as an insider trade, and be able to, in that very short amount of time, take actions that change the outcome for you, personally.
Doesn't seem like much of an upside to me.