Comment by toss1
20 days ago
Right, we agree on just about everything. Political and economic commentary is generally brain rot, and Polymarket, etc. is not an accurate predictive tool
And yes, if it starts to be seen as one of the levers to manipulate in manipulating public opinion, it will become more expensive. That does not improve it's predictive value, since we never really know how expensive it is on either side relative to the bankrolls and motivations of those who might want to manipulate it.
But for anyone who wants to use it as a crystal ball, go right on ahead — good luck with that!
If you think Polyrmarket is not an accurat predictive tool you can easily exploit and make a fortune. If you think some politician is paying to manipulate the market just take their money by taking the other side.
It's not perfect but it's the best thing we get. Certainly beats analysts, government officials and about anyone else.
>>If you think some politician is paying to manipulate the market just take their money by taking the other side.
Yes, that is True -- IFF (and that is a big If and Only If) we can suss out in real time what is happening.
The other risk is the Polymarket (or other betting market) managers' calls on what gets meet or don't meet the criteria. Like that punter who made big bets on the Venezuela Maduro kidnapping operation, betting tens-of-thousands$$ on the "Invasion" proposition and initially looking like he made almost a half-million dollars, only to have Polymarket decide it was not an "invasion".
So there is both risk of "did I actually detect a ploy?" and counterparty payout risk. But if we can get past those two, we can definitely make bank!
EDIT: Another risk, and probably the key risk, is even after noticing and identifying a large market-moving bet, whether that is from a player who is trying to skew the market (and doesn't care if they win/lose as they are playing a different game) or a player with inside information who knows something we do not.