Comment by bnchrch
9 hours ago
While the headline is interesting.
I think the table at the end of the article is more so.
- Worldwide sales -10% YoY
- China sales -26% YoY
And when you cross compare Porsche saying they sold more EV powertrains than their gas equivalents against China's new found foothold as the market leader in consumer electric cars (BYD, NIO, Xiaomi, etc...)
Then I think you see an early indication not just of electric car dominance, but of the (very potential) rise of China as the premier automotive super power.
> Then I think you see an early indication not just of electric car dominance, but of the (very potential) rise of China as the premier automotive super power.
It’s done man. Americans are stuck in ICE engines because they’ve been told they’re “car enthusiasts” while the Chinese have been developing EV technology for years. Meanwhile, European makers are stuck not knowing what to do, make Americans happy or compete with the Chinese. The result: nothing has been done properly. And let’s be real, “car enthusiasts” are going to disappear in one or two generations. Practicality beats enthusiasm for 95% of car use.
Perhaps people in the future will visit the US for the dieselpunk nostalgia, the same way people like seeing classic cars in Cuba.
I strongly doubt any current car will stand longevity of those cars. The maintenance entry cost of anything with integrated electronic is just several order of magnitude in complexity.
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Feels bad faith to shit on people from your ivory tower, just because they can't afford to ditch their reliable beaters and buy a new car. Have you seen wage growth vs car price increases lately? Not everyone is on a remote six figure US tech job. Try to view and judge things from outside your bubble as well.
I'd also dump my ol reliable ICE car that's now probably worth less than a fancy electric bicycle, if someone just gave me an EV for free ;)
But since I'm poor and can't afford EV prices with decent range, nor can I afford a home with a parking place with charger, then ICE it is. European here btw, not american.
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Yes, not to mention the fact that Chinese EVs can't be sold here... protectionism for weak American companies that can't compete globally. We've gone from an automotive superpower and the land of Henry Ford to the government propping up automakers and depriving Americans of free choice. If Chinese cars would actually be allowed to sold here they would sell like Toyota Camrys.
This is the outcome when your corporations bow down to wall Street. Tax payers money is just used to prop up their private profits and without exposing them to the actual competition. Short term profit seeking. Who foots the bill, the US tax payer who have to pay for the corporate profits and drive overpriced underperforming vehicles.
Until very recently, tariffs on American cars sold in China were much higher than vice-versa. The new US tariffs were an attempt to even the playing field.
I think most people would agree that no tariffs would be good, but China is more protectionist than any other major economy, including recent changes in US policy.
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Interesting that Canada agreed to break with the US on EV tariffs.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46648778
It's limited but I feel like Canada aligning themselves at all with China over the US is an interesting development.
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Protecting automakers can be considered a vital business for national security. This is not good for consumers, but relying on China for everything also carries many risks.
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This is exactly so. Not only is the USA hurting itself by distancing itself from it's former allys in policy and trade but it's forcing the rest of the world including EU to look more towards east for trade partners and temporarily for military support until Germany rearms itself.
Canadians already took the lead and are now taking steps to let Chinese EV manufacturers into the Canadian markets with less tax/tariff.
Meanwhile Europe is still struggling a lot with coming to terms with new world order. They've been sucking up to the USA too long since the WW2. German economy is largely dependant on car manufacturing and China is threatening this. But something is going to have to give now.
EVs are sold as a luxury product in the US. ICE cars are familiar, convenient (no need to figure out how to install a home charger), and otter cheaper (lower initial cost, service is cheaper, value maintains for much longer, etc). I bought electric, but I recognize it's a privilege to be able to do so.
If competitively priced EVs hit the market, consumers would buy them in much bigger numbers. Manufacturers want to use EVs as a way to redefine themselves and make more money and seemingly the industry is colluding to keep them premium with a shorter shelf life.
EU automaters fail at making modern cars. They just put a bunch of screens in there with awful software. If you go all screens, just commit like Tesla. If you can't beat Tesla, just stick with minimal screens and use buttons.
Somewhere between 2010 and 2020, most automakers went crazy with their designs and it went all downhill from there.
I have a 2020 Fiat 500 Abarth, and it is absolutely perfect: There is a screen (I think 7") for Android Auto/CarPlay/radio/nav, and every single other function in the car has a physical button. It is also absolutely gorgeous - pinnacle of design, IMO
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Nothing is done ever. Remember when the U.S. deeply feared Japan's rapidly growing economy?
Whenever I read or hear definitive statements like that I heavily bet on the other side.
> Remember when the U.S. deeply feared Japan's rapidly growing economy
They DID fear them and took action to gimp their industry. Read the Plaza Accord and the aftermath to the Japanese economy.
I am in Portugal right now. You know something we don’t have often here? Garages.
For example in my neighborhood most cars are parallel parked, people are living in centuries old houses converted into high density condos, there are no garages.
So what is more practical, charging your car overnight without an electric plug or going to the gas station for a few minutes?
I do have a garage and 'fuel' is half the cost of my previous, smaller ICE. We're considering solar power to get it practically free.
There's some nicer differences like leaving the air-conditioning on constantly because there's no pollution and it's also practically free. It's nice to have a giant battery instead of requiring an engine to constantly recharge it to run the electronics.
You use kerbside charging. Unlike petrol, electricity comes to you.
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> And let’s be real, “car enthusiasts” are going to disappear in one or two generations.
Not sure if you have realized this, but we have a pretty decent numbers of horse enthusiasts now.
Sure, but compared to an era when horses were used as a practical form of transport the number is effectively zero. Horses are a novelty that wealthy people play with. ICE cars will go the same way.
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Maybe you’re the kind of person who believes the glass is always full if you can make the glass arbitrarily small.
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Car enthusiast here. I raced in Formula Ford in Europe in my younger days. I still dream about the day I drove a 911 GT2. Nearly every car I’ve ever owned has been a manual.
But with the ridiculous tax incentives here in Australia (at least while they last), my new car turned out to be an EV. Specifically the Hyundai Ioniq 5 N. And let me tell you, while the logical part of my brain knows that the gear shifts and the exhaust notes and everything about it is “fake”, when I’m driving it around a track or a challenging B road, every part of my body is fooled into thinking it’s real. And reluctant as I might be to admit it, it might just be the most fun car I’ve ever had
Is it perfect? No. I wish it was 10cm lower to the ground. I wish it was at least 600kg lighter. But it has completely disabused me of the notion that electric cars can’t be fun.
How many generations are we even into cars?
Maybe 4ish? Most kids alive but not yet driving are likely to own only hybrid ma or electrics.
Seems like a relatively short term problem overall.
Not that many Americans are car enthusiasts. The most popular cars have been basic commuters for decades.
While that is true, the new car market has narrowed to the point where most of the buyers want something overpowered for their money. The most popular cars are actually buying these when they are 10+ years old.
(I śaw recently that the USA market is about 16M cars.. this would have been low figure years ago. But they are barely selling 'basic commuter cars'.)
It's hard to get basic commuter without overload of tech these days
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>Then I think you see an early indication not just of electric car dominance, but of the (very potential) rise of China as the premier automotive super power.
I thought we were there already tbh. Chinese cars have gone from laughably bad to quality parity in less than a decade. Like even 2 years ago, I was still hearing "the paint the paint" as the last remaining issue. But I dont hear that anymore.
Parity? Their EVs are streets ahead, doubly so for the price.
Other than price, in what ways are they streets ahead? I’m a bit of an EV nerd and that would not be my assessment at all. Unfortunately for Western manufacturers price/volume is probably the most important thing right now, so they are still in serious trouble.
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I dont drive one of their EV's, but the 20+ year veteran Diesel Engineer who took my DPF filter complaint escalation does and thats really all I need to know. After I run my current vehicle into the ground, that will probably be next.
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Have you seen the paint schemes on new Chinese cars? Wow. Embedded glitter, chameleon colors, while the European car industry is doing boring primer like paint schemes. I always joke that they applied clear coat onto primer. And that's on >60k models.
The "greige" colour appalls me. Not only does it look like primer, it looks like the grey of old PC cases under a brown of smoke. Either basic white or basic black would be better. Or classic metallic silver.
In terms of quality they are there, now it's expansion. I, for one, am quite excited for all this competition. I don't care who makes my level 4/5 self driver, I just want it now.
Have you ever ridden in a BYD? It's super loud, horrible suspension, seats are extremely uncomfy, everything is cheap with a fancy looking facade. If you need a car to go from point A - B and can't afford any luxury, it's fine. But it's a bare minimum vehicle with looks to appeal to status.
I have ridden in a BYD and it was the opposite experience: excellent suspension, unusually smooth ride, great seats. A few things on the dashboard did look a bit tacky. But overall, massive difference from where Chinese cars were even 5 years ago.
Replying from a BYD now. I wish HN could attach photos.
It's literally quieter than a bicycle, except for a whirring when the car powers up. We've come across people and animals standing in the middle of the road because they didn't realize the car was right behind them.
Soundproofing is good too. It comes with karaoke built in and it's more sound proof than many karaoke rooms.
Suspension is much better than my previous car but I'll reserve judgement until it's also 5 years old.
Seats are comfortable enough to sleep in - some people are even using it as an alternative to a hotel, because you can keep the air-conditioning on all night and the seats go all the way down to a horizontal position. There's a window up top so you can watch the stars at night too.
Also the seats have air-conditioning in case your back is hot too.
Tesla has shown that you can buy usd100K cars with dubious quality and terrible materials.
That makes it easier for brands who sell cheaper models imho. It is all about status, and right now having an EV and a fricking 17" TV on the dashboard trumps everything else.
I think you are a few years out of date. Certainly they used to be not great. They are way better now.
Havent ridden in a BYD, but I absolutely abhor the Tesla interior, its like riding around in a rickety iPad.
BYD's seem (super subjective) to make less road noise outside of the vehicle. I still get snuck up on by them in car parks, but I have tuned in to the Tesla hum and can hear them a while off.
Most of what you’re describing applies to Teslas too, tho.
in the australian market theres often comparison between how BYD/(chinese brands) may unseat Tesla (as the scale EV first mover), but I haven't seen what I think is the prize, which is BYD want to take on Toyota as the de facto king of global car making. They want the whole car market, not just EV and are already setup to take that on.
Especially as Toyota seems structurally unable to create a good EV. They produced one completely bare-bones model 30 years ago and never expanded past that. At least they're keeping some knowledge of the parts by having PHEVs, but I don't think they're on the leading edge of anything. Maybe they don't need to be and can buy everything from other suppliers, but they're going to be doing a whole lot less than they currently do and not sure they'll keep their profit margin.
Toyota hybrids are full hybrids however, not mild hybrids like other manufactures, so all you really need is a bigger battery and charger. My 10 year old RAV4 Hybrid (not plug-in) can deliver 160kW just from the electric motors, without the engine. That's 3x a Dacia Spring. They have the technology for motors and control electronics, and they know it works long term without issues.
Most of the European EVs are basically just electric city cars, unable to drive long ranges due to small batteries and limited fast charging. And most of them after 100,000km will need a new battery. Doesn't really fit in with Toyota's 'long term reliability' stance.
I can't blame Toyota for waiting for the technology to mature before they go all in on EVs. Plus they do have the bz4x / RX which are full EVs you can buy today.
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China's 2025 numbers are out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_veh...
They're up roughly 10% over last year and will likely hit 35% of global production. The big shift over the last decade (beyond their growing market share) is that their overall quality has caught up to (and in many cases surpassed) the traditional incumbents.
Barring a global war, I think they're unstoppable at this point.
I remember when Japan was supposed to take over the world in the '80s, to the point that "back to the future 2" had Americans speaking Japanese to their managers.
Toyota did become the dominant producer, but American and European car makers (and now Koreans and Chinese) are still around. I wouldn't bet on total domination from China anytime soon.
Well, China is not accepting/going through a Plaza Accord kind of an agreement. So history might not replay itself this time.
And funny thing, all three countries car industries were started by the USA.
What's in the mind of European political oligarchy really?
great analysis
I don’t think anyone is going to keep an advantage in car manufacturing. The way we build them might totally change in a short duration with the rapid advancement in robotics
Most advancements in robotics have been for highly generalized robots. We’ve been using robotics to build cars for like 50+ years. They’re extremely good.
China may become the superpower on volume but I would be surprised if the upper quartile (by price) of western buyers were interested in Chinese vehicles. Too much quality issues across the board on Chinese made products, unless you have a trusted non-Chinese company with stringent quality control (e.g. Apple model).
I’m sure they can handily win the lower end of the market though. And yes I’m aware many western manufacturers are shit tier quality.
I don’t think this is accurate, Chinese firms are increasingly moving up the quality chain. You might want to look at some of the reviews of Xiaomi’s recently launched car. Also, Tesla Shanghai is one of their best factories, much better quality scores than Fremont iirc.
Having a totally local, integrated supply chain pays dividends in a lot of ways, as does leading in production volume. Tim Cook also gave that interview where he was just talking about the incredibly deep bench of industrial talent that you just can’t find outside China at this point - that labor cost wasn’t why they produced there.
The issue is not actual quality, it’s perceived quality. Chinese companies will fight decades of history and negative perception to reach top of the market consumers, a segment obsessed with perception.
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From what I've heard, the quality is pretty good. The problem is when something breaks, you can be waiting for (sometimes very expensive) parts for months while not being able to use your car.
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it took Japan about 25 years of very directed industrial strategy to take the "made in Japan" label from indicating junk to the average American, to indicating a premium/reliable product. China might get there in even less than 25 years but you'll probably still find people holding onto old "chinesium" beliefs long after they should
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The (potential, no experience) quality issues are to me far outweighed by the enabling of yet another country to become a superpower which will then sooner or later result in yet another confrontation. Russia should have taught at least Europe that this sort of trade can only backfire in the longer term. Yes, I realize, China is the world's factory now, but there is no reason that can not change. I'm trying really hard to buy European made products and to use European services where possible. There are still a couple of hard nuts to crack but I'll get there.
In the US for example, most of the US brands are already made in China. They will copy the tooling and put a different brand name on it and you'll have a tool of the same quality for way less cost.
Simply put China is an unrecognized superpower at this point with the investments they've already made. The amount of infrastructure they've built in a decade dwarfs what the West has done in decades.
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> I'm trying really hard to buy European made products and to use European services where possible.
European companies are trying even harder to outsource to China.
In the past months I’ve seen an increase and it feels like almost everything is made in China, from books to Christmas trinkets to clothes and kitchen utensils, it’s a pain the ass to find locally produced goods.
This has a lot to do with the energy crisis triggered by decoupling from Russia, which was never properly put into context and evaluated from an economical perspective.
Chinese electronics manufacturing now is like Japan in the 60s/70s - I give it like a decade max before "Made in China" is widely understood to mean "High Quality" rather than the "Cheap Junk" connotation it still has today.
It's like that with tools if you know what to buy, and costs well below the US brands.
For my primary tools I'll have hundreds of hours of use I still buy the more expensive brands, but on tools I'll use much less commonly I'll pick up a Chinese unit in a heartbeat for 1/10th the price.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxYjsZr1PwM
If you read Calvin and Hobbes you can learn that Taiwan used to be known for making... shirts.
Selling the most cars will eventually translate into making the best cars, with the compounding experience and network effects.
At the time the US was making the most cars in the world...quality varied widely, to be generous.
You'd think so, but also, Tesla.
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> Selling the most x will eventually translate into making the best x
It’s a theory for sure, but I don’t think that’s a common strategy for modern capitalism.
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No its the other way. In 4x4 They cannibalised the GM-Holden Colorado chassis production line in Thailand when GM exited that market, have refitted it with chinese made electronics and shell, and have complete quality parity. Actually a few people think the engine is better, and I am forced to agree. One of the colorado downstream models I tested had a better turning circle. They also tend to pack in all the "extras" other brands put on as standard. Consumers face a choice between cheaper and better vs tried and true brand loyalty. And brand loyalty has a limit tbh.
This was once said about Japanese cars. I don’t want a Chinese car now, but I probably will not too long from now.
People are buying £60000 BYD cars left and right. That's quite an expensive car.
The upper quartile are in the US and they're not allowed to buy Chinese cars, so you are right by default.
That notwithstanding, Xiaomi cars are nicer than Teslas. They're called "the Apple of China" for a reason.
They can't buy Chinese cars now, but I imagine the next Democratic president might want to knock Elon musk down a peg or two.
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Nothing to do with quality. It's all image.
When Americans discover again how crappy their cars are compared to what's available elsewhere, like we did with Japan, there will be a reckoning once more. And again American cars will become the laughing stock they really are.
In the meantime, this incredibly short sighted protectionism will end just like the last round did. Further hollowing out our industrial base and permanently giving away large parts of a massive market.
And I'm sure all of the people involved in this insanity will want a bailout too.
>When Americans discover again how crappy their cars are compared to what's >available elsewhere, like we did with Japan
No, that's not what happened. Japanese manufacturers made cars in the US, to match US tastes. Japanese cars as sold in Japan, were not models Americans would buy.
>In the meantime, this incredibly short sighted protectionism will end just like >the last round did.
It'll end with...Chinese cars made in US factories w/ American workers? Chinese V8 pickup trucks failing to win market share against the US competition?
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The quality angle was true 10 years ago, but that's no longer the case. Chinese cars are now superior in some areas and inferior in others (you can feel that some finishing is incomplete), but on average (and especially considering the price) they're better. The gap in the inferior areas is very small, and I wouldn't be surprised if they fully surpass European cars this year, given the new models they're releasing.