Comment by hpdigidrifter
12 hours ago
This was discussed on polymarket with the Galve Goat burning bet and assume it's why
Essentially it's a big straw goat in Sweden that vandals sometime set on fire.
Right towards the end as the probability approaches zero there's a huge profit incentive, "done deals" usually go under well under 1¢ meaning 100-200x returns.
A US man once traveled to Sweden to set the goat on fire, he was caught, fined $20k(?) and then fled the country before paying the fine.
Risk reward in a situation like this absolutely creates a situation for prediction markets similar to the observer effect in physics, it's no longer predicting the future and instead altering it.
I think as this becomes a reality, in general people will stop trading so close near the deadline for so little gain.
As it gets closer to the deadline, the timeframe shortens, so the gain does increase. A 1% return which you're paid on tomorrow is a 3,778% annualized return.