Comment by fooker
20 days ago
> And let’s be real, “car enthusiasts” are going to disappear in one or two generations.
Not sure if you have realized this, but we have a pretty decent numbers of horse enthusiasts now.
20 days ago
> And let’s be real, “car enthusiasts” are going to disappear in one or two generations.
Not sure if you have realized this, but we have a pretty decent numbers of horse enthusiasts now.
Sure, but compared to an era when horses were used as a practical form of transport the number is effectively zero. Horses are a novelty that wealthy people play with. ICE cars will go the same way.
I think we are going to be driving hybrids in large numbers for several decades until there's a new battery technology that triples energy density over the state of the art now.
It can be invented sooner of course, technology prediction never really works.
Apart from Toyotas, hybrids are kind of unpopular precisely because they're a compromise. Not many people who do make the switch to EV go back.
Additional tipping points will come when cities start banning combustion engines on emissions grounds. Then gas stations start closing. After a while you get the reverse condition to EV range anxiety: having to drive further and further out of your way to fill up. Maybe you get a script-flipping service, an EV comes to the few remaining unconverted combustion vehicles with a small bowser of fuel.
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Solid state lithium batteries, which are starting to roll out now, are big enough jump. They have 50-80% more capacity which gives enough range for a day of driving. They charge faster so can charge on regular stops. They aren't flammable.
Cars don't need triple energy density, 600mi range and 15min charge is plenty. There is cost factor, but batteries have gotten cheap that isn't an issue. People talk about lithium shortage but it hasn't shown up.
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The smartest direction for someone manufacturing for the US market right now is probably EREVs aka serial hybrids - pure electric drivetrain, onboard gas generator. Only use gas when you're taking the kids to Grandma's, or when some obstacle prevents you from charging normally. Ford seems to be going in this direction, possibly a little late.
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"If I asked what people wanted they'd have asked for a longer range horse." Henry Ford, probably.
Maybe you’re the kind of person who believes the glass is always full if you can make the glass arbitrarily small.
If I’m a glass enthusiast or glass-filling-liquid enthusiast, sure if the alternative is those things not existing!