Comment by terminalshort
9 hours ago
This is just implausible. Nobody with a brain is going to throw away 4 million on the speculative hope that a prediction market price is going to magically manipulate media coverage on the election.
9 hours ago
This is just implausible. Nobody with a brain is going to throw away 4 million on the speculative hope that a prediction market price is going to magically manipulate media coverage on the election.
That's a lot of money for an individual, but if the (dark) money originates from a donor or PAC, it's just another campaign expense.
It's still a lot of money from a donor or PAC for this kind of change. I find it remarkably hard to believe that lines moving on Intrade would have a bigger impact than an equivalent amount of money spent on battleground state television ads.
It's not much different than other forms of advertising.
Compared to typical total advertising expenditures during a presidential election, my guess is that $4M is close to a rounding error.
People spend more money on sillier things on a regular basis.
Not sure why you’re downvoted. Not only are you obviously right, nobody cared about prediction markets in 2012