Comment by blindriver
19 days ago
None of those customers can afford to cancel their orders. OpenAI, Google and Meta cannot afford to get cheap on GPUs when presumably they believe GAI is around the corner. The first company to achieve GAI will win because at that point all gains will become exponential.
All the AI companies are locked in a death loop where they must spend as much money as possible otherwise everything they invested will immediately become zero. No one is going to pay for an LLM when the competitor has GAI. So it's death loop for everyone that has become involved in this race.
I don't know why you are being downvoted. What you said makes sense to me but I understand I know very little about how companies think. Can someone with a differing point of view elaborate?
No idea why the downvotes, these are valid points. I still don’t fully agree with it:
1. There are alternatives to nvidia: these 3 companies are probably developing their own alternative to NVIDIA, at some point they will switch to their solution or to competitors (for example: google used TPUs to train Gemini 3 [1], with no nvidia GPUs, despite being a pretty large Nvidia customer).
2. The market seems to be consolidating: for example Apple has decided to use Google Gemini for their new Siri [2]. I’m not an export (or future teller), but I think it increases the chance that other companies might follow and get off the AI race.
3. I am sure that OpenAI and related companies would want to sustain these kind of orders, but I am not sure it is possible without more and more funding, and I don’t know if even Sam himself know to estimate how many GPUs they will be able to buy from Nvidia in 2026.
[1] https://x.com/JeffDean/status/1886852442815652188
[2] https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/company-annou...