Comment by FabHK
1 month ago
From what I can gather, the best estimates for pre-vaccine, 2020 Wuhan/Alpha strain IFR are about 0.5% to 0.8%, approaching 1%, depending very much on the age structure (age 75+ had an IFR of 5-15%).
The current effective IFR (very often post-vaccination or post-exposure, and of with weaker strains) is much lower. But a 1% IFR estimate in early 2020 was entirely justified and fairly accurate.
For what it's worth, epidemiologists are well aware of the distinction between IFR, CFR, and CMR (crude mortality rate = deaths/total population), and it is well known that CFR and CMR bracket IFR.
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