Comment by dylan604

1 day ago

> I think most of it comes down to people staying home

Obama was able to get people motivated. Neither Biden nor Harris had anywhere near that motivating ability. I don't know that the Dems have anyone as motivating as Obama line up. The Dems seem to be hoping that enough people will be repulsed by the current admin to show up.

> Obama was able to get people motivated. Neither Biden nor Harris had anywhere near that

How do you explain Biden getting so many more votes than Obama even while Trump improved with black and Hispanics over past Republican candidates?

Newsom is an extremely strong candidate. Vance has several critical vulnerabilities that can demoralize right wing voters if the election is handled properly, and the Republicans really don't have anybody else. Rubio maybe, but Rubio won't be able to get ahead of Vance.

  • Trump had more than several critical vulns as well which did not dissuade voters. The electorate isn't as predictable as many try to make it sound