Comment by lbreakjai
18 days ago
$250k a year, for now. What's to stop anthropic for doubling the price if your entire business depends on it? What are you gonna do, close shops?
18 days ago
$250k a year, for now. What's to stop anthropic for doubling the price if your entire business depends on it? What are you gonna do, close shops?
Yeah this is just trading largely known & controllable labour management risks for some fun new unknown software ones.
You can negotiate with your human engineers for comp, you may not be able to negotaiate with as much power against Anthropic etc (or stop them if they start to change their services for the worse).
By then perhaps it will be possible to continue with local LLMs
Don't hold your breath. Hardware, memory, disks, have been stalling for a good while.
Stalling? Not at all, the prices have been rising :-/
If this is successful supply shock will kick in (because of energy/GPU constraints) and we could easily see a 2-4x price increase maybe more if the market will accept it. That's before taking into account current VC subsidies.
What’s to stop them? Competition.
From whom? OpenAI and Google? Who else has the sort of resources to train and run SOTA models at scale?
You just reduced the supply of engineers from millions to just three. If you think it was expensive before ...
> Who else has the sort of resources to train and run SOTA models at scale?
Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Amazon, Reka AI, Alibaba (Qwen), 01 AI, Cohere, DeepSeek, Nvidia, Mistral, NexusFlow, Z.ai (GLM), xAI, Ai2, Princeton, Tencent, MiniMax, Moonshot (Kimi) and I've certainly missed some.
All of those organizations have trained what I'd class as a GPT-4+ level model.
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A tri-opoly can still provide competitive pressure. The Chinese models aren’t terrible either. Kimi K2.5 is pretty capable, although noticeably behind Claude Opus. But its existence still helps. The existence of a better product doesn’t require you to purchase it at any price.
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Have they stopped making a loss yet? They'll all need to raise prices or they'll all go out of business, and now it's a game of chicken.
Competition doesn’t magically waive costs, the investors expectations of return, neither debt serving obligations.
And how has that worked out for us in any other software category?
I mean it's kind of hard to say because almost all software I use is free, a lot of it is FOSS. The software I bought outright in the last couple of years was well priced because of competition (ex: Affinity Designer 2 for $63 - the new version is free although I stick with v2).
that worked real well for cloud computing
aws and gcp's margins are legendarily poor
oh, wait
gcp was net negative until last year.
Big part of why clouds are expensive is not necessary hardware, but all software infra and complexity of all services.
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I mean… What does your shop even do? Write software? Why? The whole premise is that it’s now easily cloned.