Comment by johnvanommen
16 days ago
> That implies combined hyperscaler cloud and AI revenue going from: $330B today to $1.2T within 3 years :-))
You’re ignoring the fact that gaming is going to the cloud.
That industry is bigger than Hollywood.
Desktop computers will invariably follow.
The RAM shortage will drive the transition.
For instance, my wife uses her personal laptop about four days a year.
People like that won’t be buying personal desktops or laptops, five years from now. The RAM shortage will drive a transition into thin clients.
I already see it with our kids. They use an iPhone, unless they need to type. Then they use an iPad with a BT keyboard.
The RAM shortage is extremely temporary. It’ll last as long as it takes for new capacity to come online. RAM shortages and price spikes have happened many times before.
Eventually China will catch up in EUV fabrication and flood the market with cheap silicon. When that happens a terabyte of RAM will cost what 128gb costs now.
Cloud gaming is crap and any actual gamer will tell you that. The niche of gamers casual enough to not care about playing over network latency but serious enough to pay real money for cloud gaming is microscopic.
>The niche of gamers casual enough to not care about playing over network latency
In the saddest way possible, the niche of gamers are people playing on desktops with ethernet connections.
The majority of gamers are buying booster packs on mobile games.
Yes, but that majority doesn't need cloud gaming precisely because those games run just fine on their phone - there's no benefit in putting them in the cloud, that was supposed to be for fancy stuff where you need a beefy GPU for the eye candy.
It's not 2023 anymore. Have you tried cloud gaming in 2026? I can barely tell it's connected to the cloud.
Yes, it's amazing because it's streaming directly from a computer in the room behind me. :)
And the increases in network speed are one of the last bastions of Moores Law.
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Even if gaming goes to the cloud, how are they going to run the massive existing library of video games on the dedicated AI inference hardware that everyone is buying right now? Seems like that pivot would require even more spending.
And how are they going to get sub-5ms round trip latency into the average consumer’s home to avoid people continuing to see cloud gaming as a janky gimmick that feels bad to use?
What amount of the gaming industry do you think will go to AI providers and not game developers?
You think we'll replace gaming and desktop computers into the cloud in the timeline of the poster above (2-4 years?)
Just not realistic.
That may be true, but all of this can be done today without the massive capex and without “AI”.