Comment by YZF
19 days ago
Predictions
- Small companies using AI are going to kick the sh*t out of large companies that are slow to adapt.
- LLMs will penetrate more areas of our lives. Closer to the STTNG computer. They will be agents in the real life sense and possibly in the physical world as well (robots).
- ASICs will eat nVidia's lunch.
- We will see an explosion of software and we will also see more jobs for people who are able to maintain all this software (using AI tools). There is going to be a lot more custom software for very specific purposes.
> Small companies using AI are going to kick the sh*t out of large companies that are slow to adapt.
Big companies are sales machines and their products have been terrible for ages. Microsoft enjoys the top spot in software sales only due to their sales staff pushing impossible deals every year.
It's true the big company products have been terrible but they also enjoyed a moat that made it harder for competitors to enter.
With this moat reduced I think you'll find this approach doesn't work any more. The smaller companies will also hire the good sales people away.
History suggests otherwise, and there's nothing particularly special about this moment.
Microsoft survived (and even, for a little while, dominated) after missing the web. Netscape didn't eat its lunch.
Then Google broke out on a completely different front.
Now there's billions of dollars of investment in "AI", hoping to break out like the next Google... while competing directly with Google.
(This is why we should be more ambitious about constraining large companies and billionaires.)
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I also predict an explosion of work for qualified devs. And I predict there will be an undersupply of them.