Comment by fabian2k
6 hours ago
There is a circular restriction around the airport and a trapezoid one next to the city (https://elpasomatters.org/2026/02/11/unexplained-faa-order-s...).
What are the plausible explanations here? I can't think of anything except military action against Mexico (or the cartels inside Mexico). But even that doesn't fit well.
A suspected terror attack could explain the airspace around the airport, but not the weird trapezoid restriction next to the city.
The duration of 10 days is also weird, that seems very long for any kind of emergency situation. And as far as I understand, it is unusual to have no exceptions at all here e.g. for medical transports via helicopter.
The not-totally-crazy ideas from Reddit include:
- it's related to the annouced GPS disruption test (although that's a really long time and doesn't seem urgent enough)
- someone in Mexico is getting kidnapped by Gov
- nuclear tests
I wish those were crazy ideas, but here we are...
I don't know which Reddit thread you're reading (there are many I'm sure) but the one in r/Aviation seems to have a favourite theory that there was a credible threat of someone with MANPADS, which are shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles and not some sort of sanitary product.
Apparently they have a ceiling of 18,000ft which is exactly the limit of the restriction in El Paso. Aircraft are allowed fly over if they go above that
That's also just the cutoff for class A airspace. I think people are reading too much into the specific height.
> - it's related to the annouced GPS disruption test (although that's a really long time and doesn't seem urgent enough)
Those are done regularly without TFRs. See recent example in Texas:
* https://avbrief.com/overnight-gps-testing-affects-huge-area-...
A link to a list of notices at:
* https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/gps-service-interruptions
> GPS disruption
Ah, a very plausible explanation!
https://avbrief.com/overnight-gps-testing-affects-huge-area-...
The map indicates it will be centered on Lampasas and the region of effect seems to be east of El Paso. So, if the GPS exercises are the cause, the TFRs would've been more likely to bring in Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.
Isn't it possible that a 10-day TFR could be lifted early once the concern is past? They've probably made it 10 days just to establish an upper bound.
If it's just routine testing, then why couldn't they have announced it earlier to allow companies to plan and/or fly their planes out of the affected area?
> > The map indicates it will be centered on Lampasas and the region of effect seems to be east of El Paso. So, if the GPS exercises are the cause, the TFRs would've been more likely to bring in Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.
Wait so people in South Texas won't be able to use GPS on the ground either?
Also if the goal is to disrupt the cartels and the people using GPS to know where they are at in the process of crossing the border illegally why is the Army involved in this at all?
The Army has no business in taking part of operations to disrupt cartels and illegal immigration, it's the whole rational behind having 3 letters agency including the evil one that rose to prominence lately
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Probably laser shootdown of drug carrying drones.
Most plausible comment I found on the internet was the government lost something in that trapezoid and doesn't want anyone to fly over it and find it until it's collected.
Ah, so an alien's contact lens
Roswel is a few hours away by car. Interesting theory but they would lose it there.
Broken Arrow?
Quick, someone call Skinner and get Mulder and Scully on the case!
Another interesting note, the trapezoidal TFR is still in place
I honestly assume it's something petty. Like an El Paso air traffic controller was rude to a deportation flight pilot.
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Nice, I would have fed it through rot13 first, giving:
4775722052636667727661205376797266
its hex ascii for : "The Epstein Files"
Not a bad theory actually. None of the stuff they have done to distract from the files has been without other purpose, but that is how it is done. You have a backlog of things you want to do ranked by unpopularity, and you try to only do one of them when you are being grilled over a worse one already. I'm sure it is down to a science and probably has a name.
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I don't think you need a NOTAM for that, you could just close the airport directly. And so far this administration hasn't shown itself to be particularly concerned about preventing the spread of infectious diseases like measles.
Without cutting off the roads first? That wouldn't make much sense, right?
People drive too much. Cut off ais travel and only a few care - who drive to Los Cruzes NM to fly. cut off roads and they will in mass break the barricades.
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Well, air travel spreads things harder and faster.
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Well, this wins for silliest non-alien theory, with bonus points for the hyperbole of “concentration camp” to describe illegal immigrant detention.
In what way is it "hyperbole"? From the leaks and reporting I've come across it seems like a reasonable description.
It's not labour camps, and not extermination camps, but rather places where people are 'concentrated' while the bureaucracy figures out where to move them next.
If anything it's really weird to present it as having to do with supposedly illicit immigration, since citizens and people with residence permits are vacuumed up as well.
It's almost like these detention centers are holding concentrated amounts of people without due process
My guess is nuclear test.
Airport circle to secure the transport of the device to the ground adjacent to the test site.
Trapezoid is the test site, wider on the side that is less controllable (border-facing).
Disconnected because two separate teams executed in parallel without informed oversight.
... I don't think they're detonating a nuclear weapon in a National Monument 50 miles from a large US city...
There are plenty of better places for them to do this.
NTS was 60-80 mi away from Las Vegas.
yes there might be safer locations for an underground nuclear test, but how many of them offer the same "F U" PR capacity relative to Mexico/Juarez/cartels, etc.
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It’s probably not SOP to land nuclear weapons at the municipal airport either.
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While Mexican side has no restrictions - that would be supremely dumb even for a primary school level of thinking. Tons of civilians dead with clear reason who caused it, completely preventable.
Fantasy often likes extreme options but most probably saner reason like expected strike on cartels and their retaliation is whats happening.
>supremely dumb even for a primary school level of thinking
So 100% Trump