> Airline sources told Reuters the grounding of flights was believed to be tied to the Pentagon's use of counterdrone technology to address Mexican drug cartels' use of drones of the U.S.-Mexico border.
> UPDATE (CNN): Source briefed by FAA tells me that military activity behind the El Paso flight ban included unmanned aircraft operations and laser countermeasure testing in airspace directly adjacent to civilian routes into El Paso International. Airspace restriction just lifted.
Probably the least trustworthy actor in any such communication is a US Cabinet Secretary. They've all been caught lying repeatedly in this administration, about big things and small.
Their mendacity is matched, thankfully, only by their incompetence. Likely they closed the airspace and issued that ten day (!!) warning in error, or expectation of some kind of action that ended up being aborted, or they got pushback from a quarter they didn't expect.
I personally don't think that's the whole story. They're likely going to act against the cartels to take out cross-border drone capabilities and are preparing for S-A retaliation as well.
A cartel using a SAM against a US civilian aircraft would massively solidify public opinion against them just like 9/11 or the Iran hostage crisis. The US has been trying to extent the "foreign terrorist" label and casus belli to drug activities forever to justify military operations (ex. the "arrest" of Maduro was for drugs, not oil/Cuba/political stuff). That would be a massive self-own on the cartels part. (And if it did happen, just like 9/11, it would be used as justification for anything even remotely immigration or drug related at every level.)
This admin is focused on the message of stopping the inflow of drugs to the US. There are probably some true believers, and there are probably some reactionary accelerationists. There’s also significant evidence of amateurism, misinformation, and incompetence.
All of that coming together, I see this action coming out of meeting where
- one party was convinced that this would solve the fentanyl epidemic
- one party was hoping this would escalate military action in Mexico
- one party was convinced that America had lost its masculine bravado and taking swift and unprecedented action like this would make their wife respect them again
- one party was busy making “bets” on Kalshi
This would arguably be much more severe -- and quite likely already happening -- than the whole "congress trading stocks" thing because most of those (besides the sports ones) tie very directly to government actions in a way that the economy or a large company in generally doesn't as predictably.
As someone else mentioned, there’s some speculation in aviation subreddits that the bounds of the altitude restriction map to the MANPAD capabilities that some cartels are purported to have.
My read is that the admin is planning forceful strikes on the cartels within Mexico and is worried about their ability to retaliate by taking down US aircraft across the border.
Knowing the restriction goes to 18k certainly says that either S-A or A-S reach must be limited but the as your post points out no buffer between MANPAD actual range and the limit imposed. I think unlikely to say MANPAD, specifically.
There's a small private airfield to the west with only a single victor airway connecting to el-paso. the victors end at 17999 ft, effectively cutting traffic for non-commercial or non-business jet operators.
Closure of the victor airway there seems, again limiting airborne craft due to airborne hazards.
Hazards in the air, near the surface that are, seemingly, unplanned with a cone pointing at mexico.
That's kind of the most anyone will get until more info, could be some urgent testing of some capability or response to small craft (drones) coming over the boarder. Emergency timing could be to garner interest or emphasize importance, which works well politically.
Las Cruces International Airport and Dana Jetport are unaffected.
Even Cartels know that shooting down civilian aircraft in US airspace would be an escalation that would lead to heavy retaliation. Doesn't seem likely to me.
Good point. I guess it depends on the force, size, and especially effectiveness of any potential strikes. (i.e. How cornered a cartel might feel and how much flexing an outsized response might stand to gain them.)
Unless the government is planning an attack on the cartel[s] that is so existential that such action wouldn't be considered an escalation but rather a tic for tat.
A trapped animal will generally use all its facilities regardless of its expected effectiveness.
Doing a closure up to 18k feet is common because that's where class A airspace starts, i.e. you need a clearance to go there, you can't just fly around VFR wherever you want. The airspace above 18k might not be officially closed, but controllers can be instructed to just not give a clearance into whatever area they deem is unsafe on a particular day.
My read is most likely some kind of strike on the cartels. There hasn’t seemed to be any significant US military buildup so it’s something they’ll be able to do with a smaller force.
The trapezoid makes me worried about a ground incision there- it extends to the border and would be a cover space for an invasion force. Absolutely bonkers that we are even having this discussion.
The TFR is most likely contingency planning for possible retaliation by cartel drones and the need to keep the airspace clear so they can see (with radar) and shoot down drones and not passenger aircraft.
What’s also bonkers is our political whimpiness that allowed this to happen, right? If there is a drone response it’s pretty damning evidence that we are way too dovish in our policy against drug smuggling up until now
In the "Flight Levels", altitudes are referred to not in feet above sea level but as "FLxxx" where xxx is a nominal altitude in 100s of feet.
Altimetry is done using barometric pressure. Since this varies with weather, airplanes at lower altitudes set their altimeters to the local barometric pressure for a reasonably accurate reading. In the flight levels, where planes are typically covering ground quickly and there is very little chance of your path conflicting with the surface of the Earth, every plane sets to an agreed-upon reference of 29.92 inches of mercury as the altimeter setting.
If only this was a certainty - Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down with 298 people killed 12 years ago but still no one was directly punished for it...
It seems crazy not to just, tell people that if that's what it is. "Hey if you are flying above 18,000 please don't go lower because you could be blown up by a MANPAD."
If the cartels have MANPADS then our intel is already blown by issuing the TFR, so what's the harm in just saying it out loud?
Mass panic? Think of how wildly it would be misrepresented in the media and how disruptive it would be to all air travel in the country. People aren't rational actors and the most sensationalized headline is what ends up spreading
Of course, the US elected the only celebrity of the 80s and 90s who hates blow.
On the other hand a careful analysis of the plumbing system of Trump's Tower and Trump's Hotels in general would reveal possibly the highest concentration of coke than any other building in the world considering the intersection of wealth and istrionic personalities who called those apartments home at one time or the other.
Fate sure loves irony
Besides I would go to my grave claiming that racism is particularly strong in the war on drugs, if coca grew plentiful and naturally in the US and Europe it would not be illegal at all.
But it's scary because uh ohh inssulfation of an extract of a plant coming from the global south we are all gonna die, somebody will please think of the children.
But hey you can gulp 60 oz of super strong energy drinks which equate to about 5-6 fat lines, matter of fact you can gulp 600 oz and cause yourself a heart attack and nobody would bat an eye or investigate the safety profile of such drinks
> But hey you can gulp 60 oz of super strong energy drinks which equate to about 5-6 fat lines
Are you joking?
Look, I’m no stranger to drugs, but coke is not a “60oz energy drink” and its potential for generally destroying someone’s life is, while not at the same level, definitely in the same ballpark as crack, heroin, and meth.
I'm pretty sure no one else reading the comment has any trouble understanding what is meant when talking about cartels in Mexico. What exactly is ambiguous to you?
A drug cartel is a criminal organization composed of independent drug lords who collude with each other in order to improve their profits and dominate the illegal drug trade.[1] Drug cartels form with the purpose of controlling the supply of the illegal drug trade and maintaining prices at a high level. The formations of drug cartels are common in Latin American countries. Rivalries between multiple drug cartels cause them to wage turf wars against each other. Drug cartels often transport both drugs and narcotics, and most often the term "Narcotics cartel" is not used to describe an organization that transports the latter legally defined set of illegal substances, such as marijuana.
The explanation given is that cartel air drones entered US airspace.
I guess my question is, doesn't this happen all the time? I would think drones would be an easy way to fly a Kilo over the border to whatever dropspot you wanted. I wonder what the new wrinkle is?
Will be interesting when/if more information is released. I am not sure why folks are so surprised or think it’s shocking. While definitely out of the norm, my mind was immediately thinking 10 days seems like an even number where you are trying to find or do something, not sure how long it’s going to take so you just stick it. Certainly odd that it’s only a few hours but for all I know there is some written government procedure for whoever is doing that sets it at 10 days.
If you shut it down for too long and there is a lapse in reopening it, planes are grounded for an extra bit of time.
If you shut it down for too short and there is a lapse in extending the grounding, planes are getting shot out of the sky (or whatever threat it was).
edit: I would add that maybe there are forms for shutting down airspace of various specific time lengths and a convenient time for something of unknown duration would be 10 days. 10 days might also be enough time to be sure whatever resources need to be brought to bear on this are available where an hour or day might not be. Shut it down basically indefinitely, or at least long enough that the crew who handles this extraordinary situation will be on hand to turn it off.
Hoping it slips under other news like "Woah someone else should pay for this wall/bridge/investigation" so no one really notices it. To be fair, seems most things are about trying to direct the news somewhere else, most of the times being successful at that too.
NYT reports they're claiming it was about testing anti-drone tech at Fort Bliss.
> The brief shutdown was related to a test of new counter-drone technology by the military at nearby Fort Bliss Army base, according to a person briefed on the matter.
WTF? The FAA announces a ban on all flights at an international airport and then withdraws the ban within a few hours of the announcement? What kind of insane police state would try a stunt like that? Even for the Trump administration, that is setting the bar at a new low.
You should have been here a month ago. The FAA halted all air traffic to and from the Caribbean region with no explanation (well, duh) and no announcement of a resume date. Then it was lifted 24 hours later with no notice.
“However, a source familiar with the restriction who was briefed by the FAA tells CNN’s Pete Muntean the sweeping flight ban was driven by military operations from nearby Biggs Army Airfield, located on Fort Bliss. Drones, helicopters and other aircraft operate from the facility. The source said the FAA acted after the Department of Defense could not assure the safety of civilian aircraft in the area.”
Pete Kegbreath at it again, basically. The FAA had to act in response.
What are the plausible explanations here? I can't think of anything except military action against Mexico (or the cartels inside Mexico). But even that doesn't fit well.
A suspected terror attack could explain the airspace around the airport, but not the weird trapezoid restriction next to the city.
The duration of 10 days is also weird, that seems very long for any kind of emergency situation. And as far as I understand, it is unusual to have no exceptions at all here e.g. for medical transports via helicopter.
I don't know which Reddit thread you're reading (there are many I'm sure) but the one in r/Aviation seems to have a favourite theory that there was a credible threat of someone with MANPADS, which are shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles and not some sort of sanitary product.
Apparently they have a ceiling of 18,000ft which is exactly the limit of the restriction in El Paso. Aircraft are allowed fly over if they go above that
The map indicates it will be centered on Lampasas and the region of effect seems to be east of El Paso. So, if the GPS exercises are the cause, the TFRs would've been more likely to bring in Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.
Isn't it possible that a 10-day TFR could be lifted early once the concern is past? They've probably made it 10 days just to establish an upper bound.
While Mexican side has no restrictions - that would be supremely dumb even for a primary school level of thinking. Tons of civilians dead with clear reason who caused it, completely preventable.
Fantasy often likes extreme options but most probably saner reason like expected strike on cartels and their retaliation is whats happening.
Most plausible comment I found on the internet was the government lost something in that trapezoid and doesn't want anyone to fly over it and find it until it's collected.
I don't think you need a NOTAM for that, you could just close the airport directly. And so far this administration hasn't shown itself to be particularly concerned about preventing the spread of infectious diseases like measles.
That looks like a rather flat trapezoid for something that fell from high above.
With a fast-moving object, we can usually tell its trajectory across the map much more accurately than we can tell where along that trajectory it impacted the ground. See: MH370.
Maybe fits the "DoD is shooting something at some kind of incoming drone" explanation - they know they're shooting _from_ the top of the trapezoid but in terms of direction, only that they're vaguely facing south. (Doesn't really explain why the TFR doesn't extend into Mexico though.)
speculations are it's either related to ICE or drug cartel investigations
The former has a long history of not cooperating with local authorities (also in ways I personally think are sometimes quite malicious but that is off topic). Und normal circumstances ICE would never have the power to lead to a shut down of air space, but with the current administration who knows.
And drug cartel investigations won't cooperate with the city council as an investigation big enough to shut down airspace wouldn't want to risk it leaking by speaking with a city council about it.
But this is a pretty big deal and lets hope this is just about preventing some high ranking drug cartel members from fleeing and not some retaliatory horror story implicitly triggered by the repeated public rejections and denouncements of Trump in recent week. Like if we look at full (and violent) dictatorships(1) you would expect an internet outage to follow and then a lot of people to die.
(1): To be clear no the US is not a full blown violent dictatorship. Even through things are bad, they are not "that" bad. Through IMHO there seem to be people in the government which want to make it exactly that bad.
The Federal Aviation Administration said it had lifted the temporary closure of airspace over El Paso that it had imposed last night. “All flights will resume as normal,” the F.A.A. said on social media.
Temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) tend to be pretty terse, but they do usually call out "VIP" if they're due to someone visiting.
The type listing of "security" gets thrown around a lot, though. For example there's a permanent security TFR around the closest Air Force base to me (https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_5_8746) because they regularly fly unmanned aircraft that can't fly in insufficiently controlled airspace, and the standard airspace layout around an airport of that size isn't sufficient, so instead of making special rules for that airport, there's a "security" TFR to give air-traffic controllers extra control of what would normally be uncontrolled airspace.
It is pretty unusually to get such a short notice, and to not have instructions for exemptions.
No exemptions for medical life flights, local law enforcement, or even the military. You can read a more normal NOTAM posted for New Orleans likely for Mardi Gras (https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2231)
As a Minnesotan I wonder what this does to the deportation flights going to and from Camp East Montana.
The percentage of comments written primarily for the purpose irrational political ranting is frustrating, considering the genuinely interesting nature of the story.
"I wish all these people would stop pursuing politics discussions about an authoritarian regime, instead can't we all just talk about how interesting authoritarianism is?"
I think not; it's not somewhere you can conduct a nuclear test without starting a war with Mexico.
However it is interesting to look at the TFR area in Google maps; it looks just like a nuclear test site, but the craters are natural volcanoes.
Mexico isn’t going to start a war with the US. it would last a week at most, and they’d end up glowing even more than if the us ‘downwinded’ them all year.
Welcome. Tremendous to have you here. Really historic. Some people said it couldn’t happen, but I said keep an open mind, and now look. Intergalactic diplomacy. Nobody’s ever seen anything like it. We’re ready to make a deal, a fair deal, maybe the best deal in the galaxy.
Wouldn’t the Nevada Test Site be much better for this? Huge, government controlled, no major airports or cities, and moreover, already used for this sort of thing.
"A person familiar with the notices, who asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly, said the action to close airspace over a major U.S. for security reasons over extended period hasn’t happened since immediately after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001."
it it's "just" a training exercise or test they could have announced the closing weeks or month before it happening massively reducing the cost fallout from it
not that the current administration has in generally acted with care when it comes to causing huge financial damage to US cities, especially such they don't like
Stopping life flights though? The supposed risk of cartels shooting down a helicopter vs the immediate risk of "this guy is going to die if we don't fly him to the nearest trauma center"... That risk calculus doesn't make sense.
That's kind of what I'm thinking too though my money would be on something like "super secret stealth cruise missile ripped off it's mounting pylon" or control software went crazy rather than an airframe loss.
It's likely be something small enough and with little/no fuel because if it left a big smoking hole they'd find it quick. And it's gotta be something with fairly questionable aerodynamic properties (i.e. damaged) or questionable guidance (i.e not an inadvertently released bomb) otherwise they'd have a very good idea of where it landed.
Millions of dollars of stuck planes and cargo. If it was somebody’s fantasy, it sure was an expensive one - but I’m not sure I want to know what it was if it was a real thing
You aren’t, probably was flagged down by not being hacker enough (or more likely for being an open invitation to runaway speculation without any grounding in reality and facts)
During the ICE surge in Chicago drone traffic was banned for a while but this is obviously much more extreme if for a similar reason. Note that at least on some roads out (I'm most familiar with the road to Carlsbad from El Paso since I used to have to travel there in grad school, often from ELP) there are already CBP checkpoints.
Could it be that USA government believe that Iran might be trying to do something similar to the Ukraine operation spiderweb, where they attacked the Russian long distance bomber fleet with short distance FPV drones?
While there aren't bombers at Fort Bliss. As far as I know there are other high value targets.
Probably the least unhinged theory in this thread, but unfortunately it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If they had intel about such a threat, they'd have to move all high value assets to another base pronto. A flight ban won't stop a shady box truck from rolling into town and releasing a swarm of small drones.
(It would also be uncharacteristic of Iran to actually attack America directly, on American soil. Try to find examples of Iran doing that and you'll come up quiet short.)
You may want to recalibrate things. That’s just about the most unhinged theory here. So “Iran” is just going to go “well, shucks, I guess we can’t launch our drone swarm now that they issued a TFR.”
Not even to mention you’re ignoring the TFR far outside and away from El Paso over the Potrillo volcanic mountains
that link shows the wrong blocked airspace in my case
(it shows that some areas above the border in the desert are blocked off, which makes sense to fight drug smuggling by drones without risking mistaking drones with aircrafts)
but he article is about the new circular zone directly placed over El Paso with El Paso International Airport directly in it's center. (Interestingly because they used a circle it technically covers the Mexican side of the boarder including a part of the airport on their side, but practically FAA can't shut down Mexican airspace so it's misleading).
Also worth noting there is:
- Holloman Air Force Base
- White Sands Missile Range
- Fort Bliss
- Fort Bliss McGregor Range
direct besides the city
so a Military exercise, or deployment of Military (Trump has said he will bomb cartel hideouts in Mexico) can be added to the list of possibilities
I wonder if this was issued by the VP’s Secret Service to the FAA directly; they got caught last year fucking with DC airspace using a beacon spoofer, and they would (presumably, they’re the SS) have the authority to issue these secretly without having to be named and answer for the impact: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/aviation-flights-whi...
(See also Die Hard 2, I suppose.)
But: of the “less simple than invading Mexico” theory (which would be trivial to confirm or refute with binoculars and telescopes) I think the nuclear testing theory is more likely, as it would be in character for the current U.S. administration to decide to turn a border region radioactive to both decrease both the quantity of, and the median fertility of, those who cross the border, especially following posturing about health care costs. Presumably the U.S. does not view itself as liable to Mexico for across-the-border downwinder’s treatment costs. Not seeing a spike in KI prices in a couple spot checks, though.
Hopefully it’s something offensive enough to finally get the world to embargo Palantir.
It was reported on Democracy Now! that an anonymous source said the military representing Biggs Army Air Field at Fort Bliss (KBIF) couldn't guarantee safety of commercial air traffic around El Paso International Airport (KELP). There was no specific details communicated and the message released caused unnecessary panic. The most likely explanation seems to be an unresolved dispute between the military and the FAA related to improving airspace safety around military flight tracks near major airports (class B/C/D airspace).
They have issued orders about banning drones around ICE agents, so it's possible the terrorist agency ICE are building a base there. ICE have been given a massive funding boost so it has to go somewhere. Or its the works for some kind of military invasion of Cuba or Mexico.
Idk what the topography of the place is. If possible someone should put a telescope there and see what's up.
Probably an attempt to embarrass the admin. Now watch for the orangemanbad articles about a reckless military operation personally planned by the president in the middle of the night on X.
Hah im trying to be tongue-in-cheek but I have to admit that doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility actually lol
If there were some mundane reason for the shutdown (e.g. ATC staffing, or volcanic ash) it wouldn't be a secret, and if there were an emergency (one severe enough to ground all aircraft for so song) we would've heard or seen something.
Occam's Razor says, this order came down from Trump. If that's the case, only question remaining would be what is he planning.
Well, if the only comparable antecedent is closing American airspace after 9/11, and that order came down from Bush, it seems reasonable to suppose that this order came down from Trump.
which kinda makes it normal to not have a explanation
because anything abnormal enough to cause something like that is also likely something kept secret until it's done
(Like large scale operations against drug cartel, "special military operation", or a large scale ICE operation which shouldn't be able to cause this but does because the current administration is uh, what it is.)
There is a slim possibility that if it was airtraffic control equipment upgrades, but that would be put in the bullitin and known about long in advance, that it is just imposed with no warning is wrong and just shows how the FAA is becoming more 3 letter every day.
The entire conspiracy theory industry is praying that the closure runs its course for the established 10 days and then everything is re-opened and the reasons behind the closure are not further explained or even better become classified
I'm from El Paso. This is bullshit if I've ever heard. There are no fucking drones around here, especially not from cartels. The only criminal cartel here is ICE.
https://archive.is/GCep9
> Airline sources told Reuters the grounding of flights was believed to be tied to the Pentagon's use of counterdrone technology to address Mexican drug cartels' use of drones of the U.S.-Mexico border.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-halts-all-flights-texass...
Looks like they shot the drone down with a laser:
> UPDATE (CNN): Source briefed by FAA tells me that military activity behind the El Paso flight ban included unmanned aircraft operations and laser countermeasure testing in airspace directly adjacent to civilian routes into El Paso International. Airspace restriction just lifted.
https://x.com/petemuntean/status/2021586247827828812
>. "The FAA and DOW acted swiftly to address a cartel drone incursion.
The threat has been neutralized, and there is no danger to commercial travel in the region.
The restrictions have been lifted and normal flights are resuming."
https://x.com/SecDuffy
Probably the least trustworthy actor in any such communication is a US Cabinet Secretary. They've all been caught lying repeatedly in this administration, about big things and small.
Their mendacity is matched, thankfully, only by their incompetence. Likely they closed the airspace and issued that ten day (!!) warning in error, or expectation of some kind of action that ended up being aborted, or they got pushback from a quarter they didn't expect.
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I personally don't think that's the whole story. They're likely going to act against the cartels to take out cross-border drone capabilities and are preparing for S-A retaliation as well.
A cartel using a SAM against a US civilian aircraft would massively solidify public opinion against them just like 9/11 or the Iran hostage crisis. The US has been trying to extent the "foreign terrorist" label and casus belli to drug activities forever to justify military operations (ex. the "arrest" of Maduro was for drugs, not oil/Cuba/political stuff). That would be a massive self-own on the cartels part. (And if it did happen, just like 9/11, it would be used as justification for anything even remotely immigration or drug related at every level.)
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This admin is focused on the message of stopping the inflow of drugs to the US. There are probably some true believers, and there are probably some reactionary accelerationists. There’s also significant evidence of amateurism, misinformation, and incompetence.
All of that coming together, I see this action coming out of meeting where
> one party was busy making “bets” on Kalshi
This would arguably be much more severe -- and quite likely already happening -- than the whole "congress trading stocks" thing because most of those (besides the sports ones) tie very directly to government actions in a way that the economy or a large company in generally doesn't as predictably.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ut3I6gFmlls
> bets
Investments on Kalshi!
> reactionary
they want to overthrow the Jacobites
> accelerationists
how's that going to work ?
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"FAA abruptly lifts order halting El Paso airport flights for 10 days" - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/faa-el-paso-airport.html
don't attribute to security concerns...what can be explained by incompetence...
As someone else mentioned, there’s some speculation in aviation subreddits that the bounds of the altitude restriction map to the MANPAD capabilities that some cartels are purported to have.
https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1r1s4zt/comment/o...
My read is that the admin is planning forceful strikes on the cartels within Mexico and is worried about their ability to retaliate by taking down US aircraft across the border.
Edit: The closure has now been kiboshed. The wording seems a little “don’t panic-y” to me, but better that than the alternative! https://x.com/FAANews/status/2021583720465969421
Knowing the restriction goes to 18k certainly says that either S-A or A-S reach must be limited but the as your post points out no buffer between MANPAD actual range and the limit imposed. I think unlikely to say MANPAD, specifically.
There's a small private airfield to the west with only a single victor airway connecting to el-paso. the victors end at 17999 ft, effectively cutting traffic for non-commercial or non-business jet operators.
Closure of the victor airway there seems, again limiting airborne craft due to airborne hazards.
Hazards in the air, near the surface that are, seemingly, unplanned with a cone pointing at mexico.
That's kind of the most anyone will get until more info, could be some urgent testing of some capability or response to small craft (drones) coming over the boarder. Emergency timing could be to garner interest or emphasize importance, which works well politically.
Las Cruces International Airport and Dana Jetport are unaffected.
Even Cartels know that shooting down civilian aircraft in US airspace would be an escalation that would lead to heavy retaliation. Doesn't seem likely to me.
Coming from groups that just pickup busses of people to murder, I wouldn’t be so sure that firing back at the US would be out of the question.
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Yes that might be the high-level logic, but if you give a MANPAD to a 19 year old sicario on meth, accidents do happen.
Good point. I guess it depends on the force, size, and especially effectiveness of any potential strikes. (i.e. How cornered a cartel might feel and how much flexing an outsized response might stand to gain them.)
Unless we start bombing them first. That’s not hard to imagine these days.
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If that aircraft held a person they wanted dead, I would not put it past them.
Unless the government is planning an attack on the cartel[s] that is so existential that such action wouldn't be considered an escalation but rather a tic for tat.
A trapped animal will generally use all its facilities regardless of its expected effectiveness.
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Mistakes happen though
Doing a closure up to 18k feet is common because that's where class A airspace starts, i.e. you need a clearance to go there, you can't just fly around VFR wherever you want. The airspace above 18k might not be officially closed, but controllers can be instructed to just not give a clearance into whatever area they deem is unsafe on a particular day.
My read is most likely some kind of strike on the cartels. There hasn’t seemed to be any significant US military buildup so it’s something they’ll be able to do with a smaller force.
The trapezoid makes me worried about a ground incision there- it extends to the border and would be a cover space for an invasion force. Absolutely bonkers that we are even having this discussion.
The TFR is most likely contingency planning for possible retaliation by cartel drones and the need to keep the airspace clear so they can see (with radar) and shoot down drones and not passenger aircraft.
You are the first person to mention invasion. Kind of bonkers to jump to that conclusion.
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What’s also bonkers is our political whimpiness that allowed this to happen, right? If there is a drone response it’s pretty damning evidence that we are way too dovish in our policy against drug smuggling up until now
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"Maybe, or maybe FL180 is a nice clean line for class A airspace. No need to bother transcontinental flights for a local issue."
Way more plauible
FL180 is the floor of Class A airspace, "the flight levels", where airliners etc. operate.
Relevant chapter from FAA "Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge": https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/17_phak_ch15.pdf
In the "Flight Levels", altitudes are referred to not in feet above sea level but as "FLxxx" where xxx is a nominal altitude in 100s of feet.
Altimetry is done using barometric pressure. Since this varies with weather, airplanes at lower altitudes set their altimeters to the local barometric pressure for a reasonably accurate reading. In the flight levels, where planes are typically covering ground quickly and there is very little chance of your path conflicting with the surface of the Earth, every plane sets to an agreed-upon reference of 29.92 inches of mercury as the altimeter setting.
What does that mean sorry?
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I think it's simpler. It's going to make the cartel drones easier to spot.
Do you think the cartels won’t see this news? If this is all it was, the cartels can just wait 10 days and start up again.
Shooting down civilian American aircraft like that would seem to just be for an even more strong response…
Seems unlikely.
If only this was a certainty - Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down with 298 people killed 12 years ago but still no one was directly punished for it...
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They would want to avoid escalation. Escalation with cartels historically does not go well for anyone involved.
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Would that account for the trapezoidal shape of the one restricted area?
My bet is a showy armored advance though the open terrain near there… it’ll look great on camera! /s
Sounds like a great way to reinforce the "We ready to move along from Epstein" narrative.
It seems crazy not to just, tell people that if that's what it is. "Hey if you are flying above 18,000 please don't go lower because you could be blown up by a MANPAD."
If the cartels have MANPADS then our intel is already blown by issuing the TFR, so what's the harm in just saying it out loud?
Mass panic? Think of how wildly it would be misrepresented in the media and how disruptive it would be to all air travel in the country. People aren't rational actors and the most sensationalized headline is what ends up spreading
For your first point, on the off chance they have other equipment capable of surpassing MANPADS I’d prefer as a passenger they just fly around.
Second point, it’s not obvious if its for MANPAD reasons or it’s our own operation though we can speculate.
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Of course, the US elected the only celebrity of the 80s and 90s who hates blow.
On the other hand a careful analysis of the plumbing system of Trump's Tower and Trump's Hotels in general would reveal possibly the highest concentration of coke than any other building in the world considering the intersection of wealth and istrionic personalities who called those apartments home at one time or the other.
Fate sure loves irony
Besides I would go to my grave claiming that racism is particularly strong in the war on drugs, if coca grew plentiful and naturally in the US and Europe it would not be illegal at all.
But it's scary because uh ohh inssulfation of an extract of a plant coming from the global south we are all gonna die, somebody will please think of the children.
But hey you can gulp 60 oz of super strong energy drinks which equate to about 5-6 fat lines, matter of fact you can gulp 600 oz and cause yourself a heart attack and nobody would bat an eye or investigate the safety profile of such drinks
It's the same old story with alcohol too
> But hey you can gulp 60 oz of super strong energy drinks which equate to about 5-6 fat lines
Are you joking?
Look, I’m no stranger to drugs, but coke is not a “60oz energy drink” and its potential for generally destroying someone’s life is, while not at the same level, definitely in the same ballpark as crack, heroin, and meth.
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“Terrorists” would tend to not consider themselves such.
I doubt the same is true of cartels and their members.
I'm pretty sure no one else reading the comment has any trouble understanding what is meant when talking about cartels in Mexico. What exactly is ambiguous to you?
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A drug cartel is a criminal organization composed of independent drug lords who collude with each other in order to improve their profits and dominate the illegal drug trade.[1] Drug cartels form with the purpose of controlling the supply of the illegal drug trade and maintaining prices at a high level. The formations of drug cartels are common in Latin American countries. Rivalries between multiple drug cartels cause them to wage turf wars against each other. Drug cartels often transport both drugs and narcotics, and most often the term "Narcotics cartel" is not used to describe an organization that transports the latter legally defined set of illegal substances, such as marijuana.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_cartel
It means organized crime focusing on drugs in this context
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Closure rescinded https://x.com/FAANews/status/2021583720465969421
The explanation given is that cartel air drones entered US airspace.
I guess my question is, doesn't this happen all the time? I would think drones would be an easy way to fly a Kilo over the border to whatever dropspot you wanted. I wonder what the new wrinkle is?
The smuggling is nothing new. Sounds like they're testing laser-based countermeasures against them now.
[0] https://x.com/petemuntean/status/2021586247827828812
> I guess my question is, doesn't this happen all the time?
Yes, all the time.
agricultural drones used for spraying can lift up to 60-80kg payloads.
Will be interesting when/if more information is released. I am not sure why folks are so surprised or think it’s shocking. While definitely out of the norm, my mind was immediately thinking 10 days seems like an even number where you are trying to find or do something, not sure how long it’s going to take so you just stick it. Certainly odd that it’s only a few hours but for all I know there is some written government procedure for whoever is doing that sets it at 10 days.
So bizarre
Why the 10 day announcement overnight only to totally rescind it before the majority of US citizens wake up and read the news?
If you shut it down for too long and there is a lapse in reopening it, planes are grounded for an extra bit of time.
If you shut it down for too short and there is a lapse in extending the grounding, planes are getting shot out of the sky (or whatever threat it was).
edit: I would add that maybe there are forms for shutting down airspace of various specific time lengths and a convenient time for something of unknown duration would be 10 days. 10 days might also be enough time to be sure whatever resources need to be brought to bear on this are available where an hour or day might not be. Shut it down basically indefinitely, or at least long enough that the crew who handles this extraordinary situation will be on hand to turn it off.
Hoping it slips under other news like "Woah someone else should pay for this wall/bridge/investigation" so no one really notices it. To be fair, seems most things are about trying to direct the news somewhere else, most of the times being successful at that too.
NYT reports they're claiming it was about testing anti-drone tech at Fort Bliss.
> The brief shutdown was related to a test of new counter-drone technology by the military at nearby Fort Bliss Army base, according to a person briefed on the matter.
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Hanlon’s Razor
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."
Someone probably just screwed up
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don't attribute to security concerns...what can be explained by incompetence...
Or alcoholism
WTF? The FAA announces a ban on all flights at an international airport and then withdraws the ban within a few hours of the announcement? What kind of insane police state would try a stunt like that? Even for the Trump administration, that is setting the bar at a new low.
You should have been here a month ago. The FAA halted all air traffic to and from the Caribbean region with no explanation (well, duh) and no announcement of a resume date. Then it was lifted 24 hours later with no notice.
“However, a source familiar with the restriction who was briefed by the FAA tells CNN’s Pete Muntean the sweeping flight ban was driven by military operations from nearby Biggs Army Airfield, located on Fort Bliss. Drones, helicopters and other aircraft operate from the facility. The source said the FAA acted after the Department of Defense could not assure the safety of civilian aircraft in the area.”
Pete Kegbreath at it again, basically. The FAA had to act in response.
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I think the military did a thing without telling the FAA so they had to guess?
Trump needs to be impeached immediately for this. How dare he close airspace and then just lift that closure once the danger has passed.
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There is a circular restriction around the airport and a trapezoid one next to the city (https://elpasomatters.org/2026/02/11/unexplained-faa-order-s...).
What are the plausible explanations here? I can't think of anything except military action against Mexico (or the cartels inside Mexico). But even that doesn't fit well.
A suspected terror attack could explain the airspace around the airport, but not the weird trapezoid restriction next to the city.
The duration of 10 days is also weird, that seems very long for any kind of emergency situation. And as far as I understand, it is unusual to have no exceptions at all here e.g. for medical transports via helicopter.
The not-totally-crazy ideas from Reddit include:
- it's related to the annouced GPS disruption test (although that's a really long time and doesn't seem urgent enough)
- someone in Mexico is getting kidnapped by Gov
- nuclear tests
I wish those were crazy ideas, but here we are...
I don't know which Reddit thread you're reading (there are many I'm sure) but the one in r/Aviation seems to have a favourite theory that there was a credible threat of someone with MANPADS, which are shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles and not some sort of sanitary product.
Apparently they have a ceiling of 18,000ft which is exactly the limit of the restriction in El Paso. Aircraft are allowed fly over if they go above that
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> - it's related to the annouced GPS disruption test (although that's a really long time and doesn't seem urgent enough)
Those are done regularly without TFRs. See recent example in Texas:
* https://avbrief.com/overnight-gps-testing-affects-huge-area-...
A link to a list of notices at:
* https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/gps-service-interruptions
> GPS disruption
Ah, a very plausible explanation!
https://avbrief.com/overnight-gps-testing-affects-huge-area-...
The map indicates it will be centered on Lampasas and the region of effect seems to be east of El Paso. So, if the GPS exercises are the cause, the TFRs would've been more likely to bring in Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.
Isn't it possible that a 10-day TFR could be lifted early once the concern is past? They've probably made it 10 days just to establish an upper bound.
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Probably laser shootdown of drug carrying drones.
My guess is nuclear test.
Airport circle to secure the transport of the device to the ground adjacent to the test site.
Trapezoid is the test site, wider on the side that is less controllable (border-facing).
Disconnected because two separate teams executed in parallel without informed oversight.
... I don't think they're detonating a nuclear weapon in a National Monument 50 miles from a large US city...
There are plenty of better places for them to do this.
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While Mexican side has no restrictions - that would be supremely dumb even for a primary school level of thinking. Tons of civilians dead with clear reason who caused it, completely preventable.
Fantasy often likes extreme options but most probably saner reason like expected strike on cartels and their retaliation is whats happening.
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Most plausible comment I found on the internet was the government lost something in that trapezoid and doesn't want anyone to fly over it and find it until it's collected.
Ah, so an alien's contact lens
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Broken Arrow?
Quick, someone call Skinner and get Mulder and Scully on the case!
I honestly assume it's something petty. Like an El Paso air traffic controller was rude to a deportation flight pilot.
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Nice, I would have fed it through rot13 first, giving:
4775722052636667727661205376797266
its hex ascii for : "The Epstein Files"
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I don't think you need a NOTAM for that, you could just close the airport directly. And so far this administration hasn't shown itself to be particularly concerned about preventing the spread of infectious diseases like measles.
Without cutting off the roads first? That wouldn't make much sense, right?
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Well, this wins for silliest non-alien theory, with bonus points for the hyperbole of “concentration camp” to describe illegal immigrant detention.
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Action to close airspace over a major city in the US for security reasons over extended period hasn’t happened since 9/11.
10 day closure for security reasons seems really long.
edit: Same restriction imposed around Santa Teresa, New Mexico. ~15 miles northwest of the El Paso airport.
El Paso is the 6th largest city in Texas so not “major” but certainly large.
25th largest in the United States.
Ft. Bliss is there as well...
To me the trapezoid suggests something traveling south fell in the area. Narrow at the top, wide at the bottom.
Maybe they dropped a nuke by accident (again)
That looks like a rather flat trapezoid for something that fell from high above.
With a fast-moving object, we can usually tell its trajectory across the map much more accurately than we can tell where along that trajectory it impacted the ground. See: MH370.
Maybe fits the "DoD is shooting something at some kind of incoming drone" explanation - they know they're shooting _from_ the top of the trapezoid but in terms of direction, only that they're vaguely facing south. (Doesn't really explain why the TFR doesn't extend into Mexico though.)
The area they would expect to find it would be much narrower than the area they would expect a plane overhead to be able to observe it.
According to postings on a couple Reddit discussions, this surprised the El Paso city council among others:
https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1r1r7tu/what_does...
and
https://www.reddit.com/r/ADSB/comments/1r1pqnp/10_day_tfr_is...
They probably lost a nuke in the area. Wouldn't be the first time.
Honest question: do you mean it was stolen or it fell out of the plane by accident or something like that?
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speculations are it's either related to ICE or drug cartel investigations
The former has a long history of not cooperating with local authorities (also in ways I personally think are sometimes quite malicious but that is off topic). Und normal circumstances ICE would never have the power to lead to a shut down of air space, but with the current administration who knows.
And drug cartel investigations won't cooperate with the city council as an investigation big enough to shut down airspace wouldn't want to risk it leaking by speaking with a city council about it.
But this is a pretty big deal and lets hope this is just about preventing some high ranking drug cartel members from fleeing and not some retaliatory horror story implicitly triggered by the repeated public rejections and denouncements of Trump in recent week. Like if we look at full (and violent) dictatorships(1) you would expect an internet outage to follow and then a lot of people to die.
(1): To be clear no the US is not a full blown violent dictatorship. Even through things are bad, they are not "that" bad. Through IMHO there seem to be people in the government which want to make it exactly that bad.
The president has way too much executive power. In my country everything is decided by a cabinet meeting in America one man orders and everyone obeys.
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>To be clear no the US is not a full blown violent dictatorship.
The key word you forgot here is "yet".
>Even through things are bad, they are not "that" bad.
They will get "that" bad if you take on the attitude that things aren't that bad.
>IMHO there seem to be people in the government which want to make it exactly that bad.
We should act accordingly then.
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The Federal Aviation Administration said it had lifted the temporary closure of airspace over El Paso that it had imposed last night. “All flights will resume as normal,” the F.A.A. said on social media.
What a bizarre move.
Reminds me of the chaos monkey. Building resilience by breaking and fixing stuff.
Not sure if applicable here, though.
Live camera of runway https://app.truelook.cloud/dashboard/581/980/live
Linked from airport website: https://elpasointernationalairport.com/live-cameras/
poor PTZ mount :(
Here's a direct link to the notice: https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2233
Temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) tend to be pretty terse, but they do usually call out "VIP" if they're due to someone visiting.
The type listing of "security" gets thrown around a lot, though. For example there's a permanent security TFR around the closest Air Force base to me (https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_5_8746) because they regularly fly unmanned aircraft that can't fly in insufficiently controlled airspace, and the standard airspace layout around an airport of that size isn't sufficient, so instead of making special rules for that airport, there's a "security" TFR to give air-traffic controllers extra control of what would normally be uncontrolled airspace.
It is pretty unusually to get such a short notice, and to not have instructions for exemptions.
No exemptions for medical life flights, local law enforcement, or even the military. You can read a more normal NOTAM posted for New Orleans likely for Mardi Gras (https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2231)
As a Minnesotan I wonder what this does to the deportation flights going to and from Camp East Montana.
The percentage of comments written primarily for the purpose irrational political ranting is frustrating, considering the genuinely interesting nature of the story.
"I wish all these people would stop pursuing politics discussions about an authoritarian regime, instead can't we all just talk about how interesting authoritarianism is?"
Weird take...
Closing a small patch of airspace while military activity is occurring is not authoritarianism. Get a grip you lunatic
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Further commentary/speculation on this Reddit thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/ADSB/comments/1r1pqnp/10_day_tfr_is...
It includes a local city Councilmember who's says he is working to get more information.
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First of all, you want "font". Second of all, don't do that.
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Nuclear weapons test? The latest test treaty just expired.
Edit: There are two TFRs, one in El Paso and one right next to it in the mountains: https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2234
I think not; it's not somewhere you can conduct a nuclear test without starting a war with Mexico. However it is interesting to look at the TFR area in Google maps; it looks just like a nuclear test site, but the craters are natural volcanoes.
Well, somebody has suggested nuking a tornado before. Why not a vulcano?
Mexico isn’t going to start a war with the US. it would last a week at most, and they’d end up glowing even more than if the us ‘downwinded’ them all year.
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Probably just closing the airspace for the space alien emissary.
Welcome. Tremendous to have you here. Really historic. Some people said it couldn’t happen, but I said keep an open mind, and now look. Intergalactic diplomacy. Nobody’s ever seen anything like it. We’re ready to make a deal, a fair deal, maybe the best deal in the galaxy.
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Wouldn’t the Nevada Test Site be much better for this? Huge, government controlled, no major airports or cities, and moreover, already used for this sort of thing.
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This was my thought as well given the length of time of the closure.
3.6 roentgen you say?
"A person familiar with the notices, who asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly, said the action to close airspace over a major U.S. for security reasons over extended period hasn’t happened since immediately after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001."
https://elpasomatters.org/2026/02/11/unexplained-faa-order-s...
It shows how bad the lack of available sources is, when they interview someone familiar with the type notice in general, but not this specific notice.
The closure has been lifted: https://x.com/FAANews/status/2021583720465969421
FAA closed another airspace nearby: https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2234
- From February 11, 2026 at 0630 UTC (February 10, 2026 at 2330 MST)
- To February 21, 2026 at 0630 UTC (February 20, 2026 at 2330 MST)
My guess is nuclear tests
it's too spontaneous for that
it it's "just" a training exercise or test they could have announced the closing weeks or month before it happening massively reducing the cost fallout from it
not that the current administration has in generally acted with care when it comes to causing huge financial damage to US cities, especially such they don't like
I wonder if the dormant volcanic field west of El Paso that is covered by the TFR may be similar to Iranian volcanic mountains?
Remember, the Netanyahoo just arrived in the US mere hours before this and it is always a bad omen when the devil comes to collect.
More likely to be related to the E Files than the X ones
E-File? Like, taxes?
Epstein files.
Maybe there's credible threat of MANPADs from the cartels? Wouldn't be the first time around, apparently.
https://old.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1r1s4zt/faa_groun...
Stopping life flights though? The supposed risk of cartels shooting down a helicopter vs the immediate risk of "this guy is going to die if we don't fly him to the nearest trauma center"... That risk calculus doesn't make sense.
To be fair, risk calculus does not appear to be this administration's strong suit.
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My money is on misplaced black budget project craft
Maybe that new F-47 did a trump and fell asleep somewhere in the desert
But they didn't block the desert, only air zone and also only directly above the city not beyond it.
That's kind of what I'm thinking too though my money would be on something like "super secret stealth cruise missile ripped off it's mounting pylon" or control software went crazy rather than an airframe loss.
It's likely be something small enough and with little/no fuel because if it left a big smoking hole they'd find it quick. And it's gotta be something with fairly questionable aerodynamic properties (i.e. damaged) or questionable guidance (i.e not an inadvertently released bomb) otherwise they'd have a very good idea of where it landed.
Millions of dollars of stuck planes and cargo. If it was somebody’s fantasy, it sure was an expensive one - but I’m not sure I want to know what it was if it was a real thing
Don't worry. Mexico will pay for it 100 %.
Probably $Bs. Around 100 flights per day from there, so there would be dozens of planes on the ground.
Am I hallucinating? Wasn't there just an identical thread on the front page not even an hour ago?
You aren’t, probably was flagged down by not being hacker enough (or more likely for being an open invitation to runaway speculation without any grounding in reality and facts)
This also seems to be an open invitation to runaway speculation.
A lot of the speculation is ridiculous given only a small area has been closed. That is not a prelude to war, for example!
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*runway speculation
You've just described every comment section on HackerNews.
Proper hackers are interested in homeschool propaganda, but not in closed airspace.
Email the mods and they’ll check and merge the dupes :)
During the ICE surge in Chicago drone traffic was banned for a while but this is obviously much more extreme if for a similar reason. Note that at least on some roads out (I'm most familiar with the road to Carlsbad from El Paso since I used to have to travel there in grad school, often from ELP) there are already CBP checkpoints.
El Paso is in a very Red state, ICE involvement is minimal there.
Could it be that USA government believe that Iran might be trying to do something similar to the Ukraine operation spiderweb, where they attacked the Russian long distance bomber fleet with short distance FPV drones? While there aren't bombers at Fort Bliss. As far as I know there are other high value targets.
Probably the least unhinged theory in this thread, but unfortunately it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If they had intel about such a threat, they'd have to move all high value assets to another base pronto. A flight ban won't stop a shady box truck from rolling into town and releasing a swarm of small drones.
(It would also be uncharacteristic of Iran to actually attack America directly, on American soil. Try to find examples of Iran doing that and you'll come up quiet short.)
You may want to recalibrate things. That’s just about the most unhinged theory here. So “Iran” is just going to go “well, shucks, I guess we can’t launch our drone swarm now that they issued a TFR.”
Not even to mention you’re ignoring the TFR far outside and away from El Paso over the Potrillo volcanic mountains
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NPR just announced the El Paso airport is back online for air travel.
"Special security reason", sounds like a prelude to a special military operation?
You mean like, a three-day invasion of Mexico ?
Or just stirring up a bunch of ICE noise at the border.
Underground nuclear test and trying to mitigate the EMP grounding proximate planes?
An underground nuclear test is going to happen within ten miles of El Paso airport? Sounds unlikely
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EMPs only occur in very high altitude tests
Why wouldn't that be announced in advance? It'll be detectable internationally as soon as it happens.
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EMP from an underground blast? Ok bud.
Judging by the previous actions of this administration — Operation Metro Surge 2: Tex-Mex Boogaloo
Some drug cartel probably bought a SAM and they’re trying to find it.
Could be a window for a bunch of deportation activity? It's not very low profile if that's the case.
Reminds me of this: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-plot-plant-bombs-c...
El Paso is a hub for cargo. Probably takes some days to go through all that parcel.
According to CNN the entire airspace is closed, not just the airport https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/11/us/faa-el-paso-texas-flig...
It's closed below 18,000 ft, over a 10 nautical mile radius: https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2233
Yep. TFR was issued three hours ago.
https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2233
Map :
https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_0091
This one's responding.
https://skyvector.com/?ll=31.836456906566234,-106.7029640846...
It seems like you linked to a different area on the border to Mexicali?
that link shows the wrong blocked airspace in my case
(it shows that some areas above the border in the desert are blocked off, which makes sense to fight drug smuggling by drones without risking mistaking drones with aircrafts)
but he article is about the new circular zone directly placed over El Paso with El Paso International Airport directly in it's center. (Interestingly because they used a circle it technically covers the Mexican side of the boarder including a part of the airport on their side, but practically FAA can't shut down Mexican airspace so it's misleading).
Also worth noting there is:
- Holloman Air Force Base
- White Sands Missile Range
- Fort Bliss
- Fort Bliss McGregor Range
direct besides the city
so a Military exercise, or deployment of Military (Trump has said he will bomb cartel hideouts in Mexico) can be added to the list of possibilities
I wonder if this was issued by the VP’s Secret Service to the FAA directly; they got caught last year fucking with DC airspace using a beacon spoofer, and they would (presumably, they’re the SS) have the authority to issue these secretly without having to be named and answer for the impact: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/aviation-flights-whi...
(See also Die Hard 2, I suppose.)
But: of the “less simple than invading Mexico” theory (which would be trivial to confirm or refute with binoculars and telescopes) I think the nuclear testing theory is more likely, as it would be in character for the current U.S. administration to decide to turn a border region radioactive to both decrease both the quantity of, and the median fertility of, those who cross the border, especially following posturing about health care costs. Presumably the U.S. does not view itself as liable to Mexico for across-the-border downwinder’s treatment costs. Not seeing a spike in KI prices in a couple spot checks, though.
Hopefully it’s something offensive enough to finally get the world to embargo Palantir.
It was reported on Democracy Now! that an anonymous source said the military representing Biggs Army Air Field at Fort Bliss (KBIF) couldn't guarantee safety of commercial air traffic around El Paso International Airport (KELP). There was no specific details communicated and the message released caused unnecessary panic. The most likely explanation seems to be an unresolved dispute between the military and the FAA related to improving airspace safety around military flight tracks near major airports (class B/C/D airspace).
Aliens? I want to believe...
FAA has rescinded the TFR - looks like a possible DoD goof in relation to army exercises, leading to the FAA being overcautious.
They have issued orders about banning drones around ICE agents, so it's possible the terrorist agency ICE are building a base there. ICE have been given a massive funding boost so it has to go somewhere. Or its the works for some kind of military invasion of Cuba or Mexico.
Idk what the topography of the place is. If possible someone should put a telescope there and see what's up.
> BREAKING: A source briefed by FAA tells me the El Paso flight ban was driven by military operations from Biggs Army Air Field at Fort Bliss https://x.com/petemuntean/status/2021573468341383284
Probably an attempt to embarrass the admin. Now watch for the orangemanbad articles about a reckless military operation personally planned by the president in the middle of the night on X.
Hah im trying to be tongue-in-cheek but I have to admit that doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility actually lol
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Crashed alien vehicle recovery?
Downed UAP recovery?
doesn't need commercial air space lock down, at most private/small low altitude/drone plain lock down
They lifted the restriction:
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/faa-el-paso-airport.html
TACOs…..
If a reasonable administration took this step without any justification, I'd have serious questions.
Under this administration, I'm very very concerned that it's cover for something deeply nefarious.
If there were some mundane reason for the shutdown (e.g. ATC staffing, or volcanic ash) it wouldn't be a secret, and if there were an emergency (one severe enough to ground all aircraft for so song) we would've heard or seen something.
Occam's Razor says, this order came down from Trump. If that's the case, only question remaining would be what is he planning.
Well, if the only comparable antecedent is closing American airspace after 9/11, and that order came down from Bush, it seems reasonable to suppose that this order came down from Trump.
As for why? No clue.
“For special security reasons”. Is a “special military operation “ following? Maybe somebody in Mexico said something mean about the president.
But seriously, is this normal without any explanation? The cost must be enormous.
it's in general highly abnormal
which kinda makes it normal to not have a explanation
because anything abnormal enough to cause something like that is also likely something kept secret until it's done
(Like large scale operations against drug cartel, "special military operation", or a large scale ICE operation which shouldn't be able to cause this but does because the current administration is uh, what it is.)
What are the odds that Claudia the President of Mexico has already been extracted now?
Has anybody checked the pizza/chinese takeout traffic in DC?
Nothing unusual - DOUGHCON 4: https://www.pizzint.watch/
https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2233
This isnt a particularly special thing. It's a catchall rule and given the identical one to the west, it looks like a common military one.
Neither military nor medevac is exempted. This is unusual.
The medevac is scary. This could cost lives. Hopefully there's a reason but, given how clumsy this admin is, who can say?
Strike on Mexico incoming.
Anything to distract from Congress getting unredacted access to Trumps good friend's files/emails and naming 6 of their potential clients.
There is a slim possibility that if it was airtraffic control equipment upgrades, but that would be put in the bullitin and known about long in advance, that it is just imposed with no warning is wrong and just shows how the FAA is becoming more 3 letter every day.
guys. it's aliens. nbd.
If it was aliens trump would be telling everyone and taking credit for finally telling the people the truth.
No, he’d be rounding them up and deporting them. Have you not been reading the news lately?
The entire conspiracy theory industry is praying that the closure runs its course for the established 10 days and then everything is re-opened and the reasons behind the closure are not further explained or even better become classified
Not saying this isn't suspect though.
"Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker"
Well surely they wouldn't block flights for ten days because of ad blockers?
Ads are pretty risky, it could happen
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Launching the invasion of Canada and Greenland perhaps..
Aren't those countries thousands of miles away from El Paso, Texas?
Please understand, Geography is only taught for optional extra credit in American schools.
(I wish this were a joke.)
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Well you take this sharpie and draw a line and bam direct line of attack - if it works for hurricanes it will work for war plans
Cuba could be one. While Florida is closer, it's possible due to El Paso being considered highly isolated.
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Invasion of Mexico is also possible ...
>President Donald Trump said US forces will "start now hitting land" in Mexico targeting drug cartels
https://www.euronews.com/2026/01/09/trump-says-us-to-start-n...
(Jan 2026)
"Wag The Dog" movie all over again. Sure looks like deflection from the Epstein Files and economy.
I'm from El Paso. This is bullshit if I've ever heard. There are no fucking drones around here, especially not from cartels. The only criminal cartel here is ICE.