Comment by hackyhacky

11 days ago

> It took one September.

It's the classic "slowly, then suddenly" paradigm. It took decades to get to that one September. Then years more before we all had internet in our pocket.

> The reason the internet became so accessible is because Moore was generally correct.

Can you explain how Moore's law is relevant to the rise of the internet? People didn't start buying couches online because their home computer lacked sufficient compute power.

> I see no advances in LLMs that suggest any form of the same exponential processes exist.

LLMs have seen enormous growth in power over the last 3 years. Nothing else comes close. I think they'll continue to get better, but critically: even if LLMs stay exactly as powerful as they are today, it's enough to disrupt society. IMHO we're already at AGI.

> The difference is companies fought _against_ the internet

Some did, some didn't. As in any cultural shift, there were winners and losers. In this shift, too, there will be winner and losers. The panicked spending on data centers right now is a symptom of the desire to be on the right side of that.

> because companies do not want to pay fair value for labor.

Companies have never wanted to pay fair value for labor. That's a fundamental attribute of companies, arising as a consequence of the system of incentives provided in capitalism. In the past, there have been opportunities for labor to fight back: government regulation, unions. This time that won't help.

> If I'm wrong I can learn how to write prompts in a week.

Why would you think that anyone would want you to write prompts?