Comment by tomjakubowski
12 hours ago
It's funny, it sure seems like software projects in general follow the Lindy effect: considering their age and mindshare, I can safely predict gcc, emacs, SQLite, and Python will still be running somewhere ten, 20, 30 years from now. Indeed, people will choose to use certain software specifically because it's been around forever; it's tried and true.
But LLMs, and AI-related tooling, seem to really buck that trend: they're obsoleted almost as soon as they're released.
We saw that for PC's in the 80's because performance was advancing rapidly. It slowed down somewhat as computers became good enough.